When does winter end for BTC?

Just me comparing the last bear market to this one. The blue arrow is where we would hit our lowest price level if this was 2015. $3500 level if we went as low as the last bear market did on the same time frame. It fell from roughly $1150 to $150 between 11/5/13 and 1/14/15. So I put the bottom of the arc at $3500 which would be about the same percentage price reversal before recovering with a date of 1/25/19. (Let me know if my math is off I think that is correct.) You can clearly see that the price falling below $200 got rejected very strongly. So if we put in a very obvious low price before the last bear markets low that would be a great indicator in my mind that things are turning around much faster, I would expect the next bull market to be more rapid to a new blow off top. Just for educational purposes, I am not an expert, this is a hobby for me. Leave me some comments let me know what you think!