Bitcoin Rally comparing correctional moves

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This analysis is to see what the next step might be coming days. First of all, despite all of this, after such a big move upwards it's unlikely to think that we simply just go down and continue down again. So even in a bearish scenario, we should see some kind of top formation, meaning seeing price move for like a week or 2 between the 8200/9200-10000.

It's no guarantee, because in July 2018 we did see a high without any real top formation. However, if you might remember, some whale(s) manipulated the price extremely back then. With that 4xx million long liquidation order that was hanging in the order book of Okex. Assuming they shorted a lot in those 8k levels, then also sacrificing that over leveraged 400+ mil long position, hoping it will keep pressure on the market and make price dump.

Anyway, normally it takes more time. Also because this time compared to July 2018, alts have been very strong as well. So think the market is quite confident about a bullish outlook coming months. Assuming this, there should be more buy pressure in the market and therefore, in a bearish scenario, the top formation should take longer.

In my analysis yesterday, i mentioned that 8350/400 should be the low for this correction, also to keep the fractal alive. Now when looking at this chart, we can see it shows us a similar zone for being the low. So what we want to see, is actually a double bottom getting formed. In the mean time, we do not want to see any big drops with alts.
Think 9000 is a key level again, so if we break that one, we should be able to go higher. My bigger picture game plan is seeing price eventually test 7k prices again. That is just an assumption for now, but this same view has helped me the past half year or so and i have no real reason yet to change that. Anyone who asked me half year ago what my long term view was for Bitcoin, this is what i said:

Made this a week ago, general impression. But think if we break 7500ish withing like week or 2. Think big chance we might be headed for a big bear market again coming 6/12 months. Second option is the one on the right. Slower less violent drop coming month or so

As you can see, the idea was a continues drop up until a level where most of the market would become very bearish. Then seeing a series of rallies and drops to keep unclear of what the long term direction will be. What i want to see, to become really long term bullish, is seeing something like this. Creating a big and solid foundation at the 6k/7k, making it unbreakable after several tests and eventually starting a real rally. Going up too fast has never been good for Bitcoin.

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Previous anaysis, April 2018 10K fractal:

註釋

So the double bottom version of this chart played almost identical to the one on the left. Volume on this isn't great though, which increases the chances of this being just a Bart move instead of a real bear trap. Which means, there is a chance we could come back down again.

As long as we stay above the 8650ish, it's okay to look up. In theory, we could even drop towards like 8550ish, but i won't like it if it would happen though, for the reasons mentioned above. So above 8650ish it's save, between 8550/8650 think it's best to be alert/careful and below 8550 it prob means we will break the low of past few days.

註釋

We got back in that green zone again and at the moment i am not sure what to make of it. Yesterday's bounce looked very good at first, but as mentioned there were a few things that i didn't like so much. Alts also do not give a clear sign, where some look bullish while ETH looks like it can make another drop.

So my guess is, that bitcoin will drop below the green zone before breaking up. I just don't know if it will be like 50 points below it or or that we even break the 8500/450. A simple retest of 8500ish, doesn't make a lot of sense to me, would think if we reach that zone, we probably drop some more. Maybe making the past week (since the 9200 high), and ABC correction.

At the moment, i still do not think that the only way is down, not yet at least.
For now, think the 8600 low, as you can see on the right, is what keeps the bulls in favor. If that breaks, the above could play out.