BTC: Where we are now in the grand scheme of things

2018年6月22日

So, as I posted in my last update two updates to my previous idea, a further dump was more likely as compared to a short squeeze:

The reason is that too many people are still long, the sentiment is still too bullish, and whales will brutally exploit that with a long squeeze, leading to dumps.

But where are we now in the grand mega cycle?
Well, the bearmarket is pretty cemented as of now. Comparing with the 2014 fractal, I see a strong similarity of the situation now with the weekly candle of 7th of April 2014. The dump went below the weekly bollinger band, with
a strong subsequent rebound.

I think the same will happen now. I numbered the dumps and rallies all down to the lowest low, which we'll probably see in early to mid 2019 (at 2-3k, minimum of 2k).

So this dump will probably take us down to 5000-5400 area. I don't think it will hit the 78% fibo support level at 4300, this is too far from the lower weekly bollinger band.

I think we'll see a strong rebound after the low at 5000-5400, up to around 8k. This is a nice chance for some good profit.

2018年6月23日

註釋

I am currently closely watching the shorts on Bitfinex, and they are rising fast. If we don't continue to dump within the next 8-12 hours, I will close my shorts, because a short squeeze will get more likely.

2018年6月23日

註釋

Yep, shorts were too high, and now they get squeezed. I am exiting my short position and will see what happens next. I am still mid-term bearish though overall, however, this bounce could go up a few hundred usd.

2018年6月24日

註釋

Ok, this bounce was not as hard as I expected. We continue down to the target area of 5200 plusminus.