Aug 15

8月16日

Overview:
Lord Jerome reported 227,000 jobless claims, slightly below the expected 234,000. Additionally, almost all other macroeconomic data points to a growing and improving economy. July U.S. retail sales were three times higher than anticipated, coming in at 1% versus the expected 0.3%, suggesting strengthening consumer confidence, which has risen above 0.7% for the first time since January 2023. Auto sales are also up. Are these newly unemployed Americans spending their savings? Unemployment has been rising since January 2023 and now sits at 4.3%.
The chances of a recession are decreasing, and BTC is rising.
Interest rate cuts are a tool for quantitative easing, typically applied when the economy isn’t growing and needs an injection of liquidity (M2 money supply). But if the economy is healthy, with spending on the rise and government spending contributing to GDP growth, rate cuts might not be the solution.
Now, think critically—if everything is relatively good (maybe not great yet), the economy is somewhat healthy, and the S&P 500 has been rallying since October 2023—why would you sharply cut rates? Perhaps two or three cuts by the end of the year, reducing rates by a total of 0.75%, at most.
For those expecting such a small rate change (a 13% decrease by the end of the year) to have a significant impact, they might be in for a rude awakening.

Alts Relative to BTC:
If BTC dropped by 1.92%, ETH declined by 3.34%. No significant divergence, except for AR, which posted a thin green candle.

Bull Case:
All bears die.

Bear Case:
All bears don’t perish but remain very much alive.

Fear and Greed Index:
Lower, at 40.61%. Dangerously close to Fear territory.

W:
Forming another lone star/abandoned child-type candle. Where do you want to go next, Mr. Bear Market?

D:
August 15th ended in red, closing below the daily level of 58.2k. Bearish. On the 14th, we touched the BB MA and are now heading toward 52.2k.

4h:
No new divergences—just the old ones still playing out. On both August 14th at 8 a.m. and the 15th at noon, U.S. bears woke up and decided, “Nah, crypto ain’t sh*t.” Red candles followed. The last four green candles showed diminishing volume, not reaching the BB MA. Leave a comment if you know what that means—unless you’re a whale, in which case, just do your thing.

1h:
No divergences. The sell-off ended at 4:00 p.m. U.S. time, almost touching the freshly established weekly level of 55.9k set at the beginning of July.

Prediction:
In the next two weeks, the bottom falls out. When September arrives, big whales will return from vacation and send the market crashing down, with rate cuts providing little relief.

Opportunities:
SOL: Still at weekly resistance level. But keep in mind, it approached this level from the top, not the bottom. Although it has garnered a lot of attention this bull market, it doesn’t follow normal technical analysis rules.
APT: As noted yesterday, starting at midnight, it began its descent, printing a nice -6.24%. Did you catch that?

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