semasters
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BitCoin Price Prediction $1-3M on Log chart w/Technicals

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
This BitCoin             price chart (logarithmic scaled) shows a clear and reasonable path to $100k per coin in April of 2018, and then beyond to $1 Million per coin in Q2 2020, and then $3 Million per coin in Q2 2021.
If enough Crypto Revolutionaries show an interest, I'll update the chart periodically as market conditions dictate.
評論: A must read for those who want to understand the true value of BitCoin:

https://decentralize.today/dont-fall-for-the-hype-why-bitcoin-s-10-000-price-doesn-t-reflect-its-true-value-6b42a59fce0a
評論: This is basically a 2017 year end update on the BCT progress towards the target 100k+ area. The chart below shows an updated and zoomed in view of the target area. Serveal points related to this chart are:

1. On 01/07/18, BTC closed at 16,124, pretty much dead on the arc path. In December the market got ahead of the arc path at the 20k level, and then pulled back to 11k.

2. This is a log chart. BTC is currently at the 4th exponet level (10**4 == 10,000). Our target is basically the lower part of the 10**5 level, or just over 100k. On an exponent basis, we are 80% the way to the target. On a linear basis, we're only 20% the way there. So over the next few months there should be a lot of bang for the buck.

3. The next target to reach on the arc path is 31,000 on 02/11/18. When the current correction is over, and the 20k level comes out, we'll look for this level around Valentines day.

4. What could throw a monkey wrench into the mix, preventing BCT from continuing on the projected path? The current correction needs to hold the 8,000 level. If it does not, there is likely to be a BCT clash with Bitcoin Cash (BCH). The danger area is shown on the chart. If we enter this zone, some market and mining chaos could ensue, so be prepared! Bitcoin cash is a good investment it it's own right, and also excellent insurance if BCT succombs to BCH!

5. The target zone and CD leg into the target zone have had minor updates.

6. Next update around Valentines day, or sooner if market conditions dictate.

評論: Bitcoin is in a similar degree correction and has pulled back to the 200MA.

In the chart below, notice the similarities of the current correction off of 19666.00 and the correction off of 259.34 that started in April of 2013. I'll list them.

They each:
1. started off of the inner resistance channel line
2. found support at the 200 moving avg line
3. are 4 grid lines in length (so far)
4. made .882 corrections to the inner support channel lines.

If the similarities continue, then when the current correction is over, BTC would rally to the upper resistance channel line reaching the target of $100k - $110k.

The April 2013 correction was 4 grid lines in length and the correction lasted 12 weeks. The current correction has reached the same length (4 grid lines), but in 6 weeks. The market may simply just rally from the current low of 7625.25 (BitStamp), as it has already started to do. But more likely there will be either a testback after a few weeks of rally or sideways movement, or even one more push down to the inner blue support channel line, meaning a lower low which could reach the 6500 area. In any case, the rally towards the target area should either be on the way, or commence in six weeks or so after one more push down. Alt coins are rallying as well, so that's a good sign. In fact, Litecoin is already up over 70% from it's $100 low.

The rally into the 1163 high in Nov of 2013 which reached the upper channel resistance line was 9 grid lines in length and 21 weeks in time. Using those figures as a projection for the rally from our current correction low would take the market to the target shown in late July 2018.

Thank for update sir, I am fully on the same side considering this idea and current market. its much more similar with 250s bubble rather than Mtgox bubble, considering price height in the channel, retrace, time it took and fundamental side of things.When everyone expects growth they get slaughtered, now everyone expects further decline so the market speaks for itself. Keep it updated sir!
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This analysis is invalid. Fundamental factors changed the entire path. We are now on the 2013-2014 fractal, which means 85% drop from 19,900 down to ~4000 and 12 month consolidation period. That is the realistic scenario. $1million per bitcoin would mean like $100 trillion market cap, or the size all all the companies in all the G20 world indexes combined. Not likley, considering, the US could just as easily fix their money supply and create hyper-deflation and your dollar would be worth $1000 dollars.
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semasters josephtse
@josephtse, I do think you are correct, with the exception that the high is not in at the $20k area; rather it will come from the upper channel line around $100k, and then will take us back down 60-80% over a period of 12 months or so back to the $20-40k area. In any case, we'll see shortly, as my interpretation of the charts suggest that BTC to make new highs above $20k no later than the month of April, 2018. So, in a few months, that either will or will not have happened.

If, after the correction back to $20-40k, Bitcoin then makes new highs above the previous high in the $100k area, around 2020-2021 or so then we will be in unchartered waters as BTC (or perhaps just Crypto) will have become a serious threat to the fiat system and the elite that control it. Gov'ts, of course, will fight back to perserve their power and control over the world financial system. I have no idea, nor does anyone else as to how that is all going to play out. We only know that the fight is destined to come. Gov'ts won't necessarily win, as a collapse of the fiat system with significant bank failures could usher in the fiancial ago of Crypto without a shot being fired.

Bottom line...I see (in the charts) $100k coming in 2018, and $20-40k thereafter, with probably new highs thereafter or at least a retest. The main chart posted shows a path to $1-$3M purely as it would unfold, if it did, on a logrithmic scale, but that is not a prediction.
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josephtse semasters
@semasters, Man what are you smoking. I want some of it.
+1 回覆
josephtse semasters
@semasters, Charlie Lee said we're in for a multi-year bear market. I would believe him before I believe you. Considering you didn't create Litecoin.
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OzzieMann josephtse
@josephtse, I'm sorry but what has creating a coin has to do with knowing what the market does?
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Thanks for the update! Appreciate also the wider perspective with BCH! Great and happy to read you again sooner or later. :-)
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Dear Semasters, any news? Zoom into the chart?

Appreciate your view! BR.
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semasters Hagenbefragen
@Hagenbefragen, Will update the 1st of the new year.
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Hagenbefragen semasters
@semasters, nice thanks! Happy new year!
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