Apologies for posting this as an "idea", but I don't manage to get sufficient reputation points to actually post comments on other ideas / to participate in the chat.
I was looking at the CME January contract
There is an open interest of 139 contracts only, that's slightly less than 700 BTCs. In dollar terms this is tiny, in addition these would be held by different parties... I can see no investor out there large/interested enough to manipulate the BTC market and profit from this. Furthermore, the last trade-able date is today, but the actual valuation (cash settlement) takes place on the 31st, this day would seem more relevant (if at all)?
Of course, if the whole market (incorrectly) believes today is important... then that in itself can make it important.
Correct me if I'm wrong?
評論
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In addition - Every future contract had both a buyer and a seller, an investor betting on a price rally and an investor betting on a price drop. Equal and opposing forces.
IMO... If there is a move at 4PM London time, it will be due to a complete misunderstanding of the futures market.
It may be too early to extrapolate the effects of the futures expirations on the price, but at the 17th CBOE futures had their last trading day and BTC made a new low at 9200. Could be coincidence...
aleclister
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I agree with you, I think a lot of people are simply waiting for them to expire before making a decision. I don't think the actual contracts will make much of a difference. But, hopefully with the futures out of the way, the market moral will recuperate. Will just have to see!
maxime-
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@aleclister, ... So if the market expects a bounce after expiry, but no bounce happens (because we incorrectly assumed market manipulation was taking place), will that make part of the Long population re-consider their positioning? That's where I am at currently.
Randy_Sampson
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@maxime-, I think everyone assumed that it was going to 8k and thus took up positions around there. All of those positions made a good support for 10k. Not sure if and when people will increase their buy in price. True or not I am still waiting until 4 pm et to make a decision. Many coins are looking like a good deal right now but I still want them lower.
aleclister
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@maxime-, Then the price could go lower, 9k-$10. I agree with Randy, so many people have buy orders in the 8k-9k now, it will be difficult to get through that.
darkandblue
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correct.. that is the sentiment, expecting a jump post 4pm UK time