We continue to remain on Bitcoin' though many are calling for another leg down. In the broader perspective of the market the trend is still and assuming we have completed wave IV' and entering wave V' going back to 2012 we believe there is opportunity for a new all time high before another major correction.
We have the beginning of a clear count which we at this time are assuming is the first wave of the broader 5th wave count. Currently support has been found at the 0.618 level of wave iii' and we are looking for a reversal signal prior to entering a positional long trade. Those looking to add early before confirmation should use the 9070 level as a stop area as a breakdown of this level would negate the current count. I can not emphasize enough that in my opinion active trading corrective markets is risky and one should understand the risk and have tight and skilled money management in place. It is not about being right or wrong but managing your money to minimize losses.
Shorter term levels of importance are 10339 and 10913 which are the 0.318 and 0.618 levels of wave iv' and 11802 which is the previous top and also a longer term level. We maintain our shorter term positional trade target level between 12974 and 13301.
Hidden Trend Lines:
Ignoring the extreme tops there is an upper which has become support for the current breakout. Not all are equal. Two points are often misconstrued as a and though it can be used as an upper or lower , we are looking for more than 3 to 4 points to determine the "true trend" and consider the breakouts either noise, or a failed breakout. This is purely subjective as is most .
One thing that many are good at is pointing out the obvious. Everyone has the upper light blue "trend line" on their chart as a . Other than it being two tops these two points do not form an overall trend of market sentiment. You can see clearly that the current move did not test this . A to me is multiple points where a top, bottom, or consolidation occurred giving us a perspective of the current sentiment of the market. Often finding a hidden that no one else is looking at can be the difference in following the herd and following the market, or looking for an edge on the market and where longer term money is positioning itself in lieu of shorter term traders. I'm not looking for the obvious trends and patterns I'm looking for those hidden trends that are more indicative of market sentiment.
Clearly the bolder blue is more indicative of resistance and support levels throughout the correction. Currently this has been broken and has provided support of the recent pullback. This is also happening at a critical level from the recent swing. As I have already added a position prior to the market bottoming I am going to exert patience here and look for a signal to validate a reversal before adding another position.
Seeing the obvious is easy, finding those signals or trends that provide an edge over the average trader is what separates great traders from average. This takes time and effort, and if you are looking for the obvious, you often overlook the factual. The chart speaks to us, it is our jobs as traders to decipher the chart and look for an edge the majority of the market is missing. This is often the difference in following the herd as they are led over a cliff', or seeing a hidden path to brighter pastures that were left uncovered.
Yet anyone can connect dots on a chart and make a "trend line" as was the point of this article. I can make a bullish trend line as well with 3 points.
Bottom line I was clear in the article that though I am long LONG TERM I am either looking for a reversal to add to my long position or looking for a breakdown of the 9070 level which would negate my count. Since we have NOT broken 9070 your assuming we are going lower. I am being patient and seeing what the market does not guessing where it is going.
However again I do understand there are some that are short the market. I have no disagreement with that because they have a valid point. But if all you can do is criticize and offer nothing of value to the conversation then please move on.
This is why many that just look at charts and have no broader perspective of the markets in general are right from time to time, but do not understand how markets work and how to put it all together. This is where experience in trading these markets comes in, and yes I have traded them all and saw the correlation as it was happening. While many were blaming whales, or patting themselves on the back, I was lucky enough to pick up LTC at 115 ;) Now I had already had the order in but what a gift!!! Why didn't I buy more Bitcoin? Well once a collapse in derivatives happen sometimes it is days weeks or months before the actual damage is felt. Just look back at the housing market derivatives collapse, it was 10 months before the pain was really felt.
You are great.
Don't pay any attention to the haters.
Assuming your BTC fundamentals continue to grow (I.e growth of network - transactions, addresses etc).
Do you sell entire position at top of next cycle near ATM or continue for much longer time frame?
Sales or Revenue
Gross Margin or Profit
Profit or revenue per employee
Return on Investment (ROI)
Days in A/R (e.g., average of 75 days for collection of money)
Days Held in Inventory (e.g., 90 days of stock on-hand)
Inventory Turnover Ratio (e.g., four inventory turns per year)
Current Ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities)
Quick Ratio (current assets minus inventory, divided by current liabilities)
Debt to Equity
Bitcoin price is ALL CHARTS,no real data. At the extreme that if a solid group of TA, organize themselves, they will influence the path of the bitcoin in the chart.
Amazon is purely a speculative play with a PE of close to 300. It would have to quadruple earnings for 4 years to get to a reasonable PE.
Bitcoin you look at transactions, active addresses and address growth. This is an underlying fundamental indicator of the adoption of asset in itself. This is no different then gold. What makes gold so valuable. Only the fact someone will pay 1330 for an ounce and it has an agreed value between two parties. Same with bitcoin or any other fiat currency.
The big difference is clearly this.
I do not know how much gold can be mined from the ground or the ocean. I do not know how many Euros or Dollars will ever be printed. But I know exactly how many bitcoins will ever be available!
But good question!