BTCUSD Points of Interest

2020年4月25日

Looks like we have stabilised for this time period around 7500. I am still overall bearish due to fundamentals as I do still see a correlation with DJI and BTCUSD and am expecting the DJI to drop as COVID-19 is not going away and will continue to affect the economy.

As bad as it is to use COVID-19 deaths as an indicator I think the point of 60,000 deaths in US will be a tipping point I will be looking at as President Trump has been pushing the narrative that they will only have 60,000 deaths. Looking at their velocity of daily deaths this looks like it is going to be a lot worse than they have touted and it looks like they will hit that number middle of next week. (Thoughts and condolences to anyone that has been affected by COVID-19 and hope everyone is taking this seriously and not treating this like a Flu still).

So what I will be looking to do is SHORT at below 7350. I will also be looking at SHORTING above the 7800 - 8000 if it does get that high. If there is a push above 8000 and stabilises above 8000 then this will invalidate this trade and then I will be looking at a SHORT position around the 9000 - 9500 (which is the upper bound of the WEEKLY pennant). If it gets to this level then we will discuss this further but if it does push above 9500 we will be looking at being in a BULL RUN but I will be watching fundamentals very closely because if there is no use case, or wider adoption then I will stay out of the market as I believe it will be a bullish fakeout from whale speculators which only ends with a pump and dump.

Anyway...bit of a ramble there. Maintain or gain