#202517 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

comment: Very bullish breakout on Tuesday, now bears last hope before 100000 is if maybe prior support has turned resistance. I marked the area with the red box. How likely is it? Very unlikely. Much more likely is a measured move up which could lead to 101000ish.

current market cycle: weekly chart says continuation of the bull trend but i highly doubt it. much more likely we are in a big trading range 73000 - 110000

key levels: 85k - 100k (if bears somehow manage to get below 85k again, we test 80k next)

bull case: Big breakout above 90000 and now 100000 is the obvious next target. The lowest measured move up I can see is 101000 but I want to see market reaction around 100000 first before I look for higher targets. Bulls are in full control of this but any pullback should stay above 88000.

Invalidation is below 88000.

bear case: Bears gave up on Tuesday and I think more will wait for 100000 and see if bulls take profits there before initiating new shorts. Until bears can get a daily close below 88000 again, they don’t have much.

Invalidation is above 101k.

short term: Neutral but bullish above 96k on good momentum for 100k. No shorts until bears show strength again.

medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-13: Bear targets for this year are met. Now we likely range before we get new impulse to either side. I wait for market reaction around 100000 before I write more here. For now my assumption is still that this will be a trading range 73000 - 100000 for longer than a retest or even new highs.