Bitcoin Spice – Is the Bull Back?

2023年11月13日

Summary: Bitcoin offered a spicy month of green candles. Mid October through to yesterday’s weekly close was 4 weekly green candles, for a collective 40% gain at peak. Some call this the early stages of a bull market, others are looking for a pullback. I think both are possible, and we’ll cover both.

My advice for the past year remains the same, dollar cost average in. Earlier was better but its not too late. Bitcoin is only half of it’s previous high, and even a conservative growth of 3x this cycle means you have plenty of time to stack crypto. Don’t wait, develop a DCA strategy and begin to buy now before institutions do.

Bitcoin Levels: 30k marked the most important support level in 2021’s bull market, and it took bulls three tries, but they finally escaped 30k in mid-October. This moved price into the next higher value range, between 30k and 40k, closer to bull market territory.

Immediate resistance: $37,592
Immediate support: $36,609
Current value range: $30,009 to $39,325
Support levels:

• $34,620
  
• $33,000
  
• 30,170
  
• $29,379
  
• $26,145
  
• $25,100
  
• $22,240
  
• $20,981
  

Resistance levels:

• $37,592
  
• $37,993
  
• $38,094
  
• $40,400
  
• $42,354
  
• $46,967
  

Bull Perspective: Mid October’s breakdown to around $25,000 was an opportunity for momentum and sentiment reset. This reset Open Interest (OI) and gave bulls a third opportunity to break through the $30,000 resistance, which they did.

An argument could be made that closing the monthly chart over 30k signals the start of a bull market, especially as we also remain over the 20w SMA and 21w EMA, which generally signal prevailing bull sentiment. But this sentiment is likely aligned to the potential Bitcoin ETFs and if they are rejected or delays, may stifle short term bullish sentiment. From a technical perspective, the chart looks bullish, and the range between 30k and 40k is historically a heavy accumulation range; an ETF approval would be extra spice. If we retrace here, I prefer to see no lower than BER:33K, but prefer 34k or higher for support. To the upside, 38k is a key resistance and flipping it would be a very bullish signal.

Bear Perspective: The chart looks bullish, sentiment is rising – all positives. However, while a continued upside move is possible, its unlikely we see institutional money enter the market before the SEC issues a Bitcoin ETF. With that in mind, any moves beyond $30,000 and up to $40,000 could be short lived, if the ETFs are rejected or delayed, or the macro degrades further and Bitcoin is impacted.