right now it seems like every trader is adamantly subscribed to one of two camps: (a) "blow-off top incoming, we're going to the moon!" or (b) "$10k incoming, everyone will suffer a slow and painful death!". admittedly i'm more often associated with the former (see my blow-off top prediction). but i have my reasons.
here i'd like to offer an alternative to this "two-party system". it may not be as sexy as a never-ending series of green candles straight into orbit, or a relentless chain of long liquidations that leaves a bloody trail of red directly to zero. but it might be more likely. with a market that's slowly maturing (lumbering around between a 2 and 3 trillion dollar market cap) i think the days of such extremely overreactive scenarios are numbered.
with cycles lengthening, i think a perfectly plausible scenario would be a continued consolidation in this range before the market makes its next big decision. i do still happen to believe that next decision will be a continuation into the last leg of this bull market, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.
here i'd like to offer an alternative to this "two-party system". it may not be as sexy as a never-ending series of green candles straight into orbit, or a relentless chain of long liquidations that leaves a bloody trail of red directly to zero. but it might be more likely. with a market that's slowly maturing (lumbering around between a 2 and 3 trillion dollar market cap) i think the days of such extremely overreactive scenarios are numbered.
with cycles lengthening, i think a perfectly plausible scenario would be a continued consolidation in this range before the market makes its next big decision. i do still happen to believe that next decision will be a continuation into the last leg of this bull market, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.
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the origin of the white dotted trendline: 註釋
watching for potential formation of bullish hidden divergences (RSI) here: this COULD provide some validation/evidence of a more bullish scenario:
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the theory of lengthening cycles would support this idea of a longer periods of consolidation between impulses:
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some people refuse to believe BTC is in a consolidation pattern. for some reason they think that it's too large a range, or that you can't have a new all-time-high during consolidation. to those people i say: look at the volume. this is what volume looks like during consolidation, almost invariably. compare that with volume after the prior two cycle tops. 註釋
following the fractal pretty closely so far. broke above the down trendline and heading back down for the retest now. this is what i'm thinking:註釋
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B1 correction looking flatter than B0, which leads me to believe we may need to dip a bit lower ($40kish) to catch a spring註釋
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