$BTC back below $60k before the election?

2024年10月21日

BTC has been consolidating in a series of lower highs ever since the March highs. Everyone is extremely bullish here calling for new highs by this week or end of year. I've seen multiple people on Twitter share that they market bought $100,000k+ of BTC in the last week.

I don't think the trade is going to be that easy and the chart is shaping up to have a similar view.

If we look at the chart, you can see that price is rejecting off of the upper trend line from both the larger structure as well as the smaller channel inside of that larger structure. Unless price can break above those levels, I think price is most likely to head down from here.

I know everyone's downside targets for a pullback are in the $63k-67k range, but the chart tells me that we should see lower. My base case from here is that we get down to the two lower supports at $54-56k, but I'm open to the possibility of a bounce at $59k.

I'm not shorting here this move. I never short crypto. I'm just sharing this view to provide a better entry for those looking to get in the market and establish a new position, or to prevent those from losing money (especially leveraged positions) on the move down.

I'm still of the view (as of now) that this move will be the start of a larger move down, but I'll wait to share more on that after this pullback plays out (if it does).

2024年11月1日

註釋

I don't think we see downside anymore after yesterday's move. Looking to play the long side now up into the 83K-86k range.