Bitcoin's Price Movements Follow Exactly the Simple Story Book

As we can see in the main chart above, Bitcoin price reached the red dashed line and the fight between Bulls and Bears is under way. Yes, it is the small area marked with a circle where Bulls and Bears are involved into a heavy fight about the direction of the Bitcoin's price. I will publish an update, which will show the area inside that circle maginfied in a chart with one minute candles.

The sceanrio is simple.
  • 1. Bitcoin is in a strong bear-trend. The first move went down from 17174 near point 3 to 9005.
    2. Right now, the price of the Bitcoin is in a consolidation from 9005 up to 12787. As mentioned above, Bulls and Bears are involved in fight at this level. Who will win? Which direction will Bitcoin go?
    3. As we can only interpret a chart in connection with the news, I say that we will see a crash this coming week and Bitcoin will fall to the level of 5568.

    Read more in my previous idea. why Bitcoin is that much under pressure:

評論: The below chart is magnified and shows the fight between Bulls and Bears around the red dashed line. Who will win that fight about the future direction of the Bitcoin's price?

The price movements of Bitcoin follow exatly the story book of my predecessor idea.
評論: The fight on the important red dashed line seems to continue. Bulls and Bears are pulling in their direction. The price of Bitcoin is moving up and down. What a great time for swing traders!
However, none of my trading platforms is open on a Sunday while Bitcoin is traded 24/7. Does someone know a licenced trading platform that is open 24/7? Your advice is welcome!
評論: Good Morning! It's Monday and we start into a new week. It will probably be a week full of action. What happened over the weekend? BTCUSD moved up to the red dashed line at 12787 and there was a fight Bull against Bears. The Bears won and BTCUSD is declining. The overall scenario is bearish.

Right now, the price is locked inside a small flag, marked as “trend continuation pattern” in the chart below. I expect an outbreak to the downside.

Over the weekend, the test of the red dashed line happened with low volumes. We have to expect that the traders want to test that important red line again when the European market opens at 09:00 UTC+1 and the US market at 15:00 UTC+1. UTC+1 is the time in Central Europe: Zurich, Berlin, Amsterdam.

Alternatively, a crash could occur if panic spreads.

評論: The predicted breakout just happend. The bear-trend is confirmed. We will see, how far down BTCUSD will move before a pullback and another test upwards when the US markets open.
評論: The US market just opend and they try the upside first. They will not succeed on the upside. After a while, BTCUSD will drop to 9905. At 9905, there will be a show down between Bulls and Bears. Who will win? I assume the Bears will and the price of the Bitcoin will drop down to 5568.
評論: I just made a minor change on the scenario: The red dashed line moved from 12787 down to 12230. As long as BTCUSD stays below that red dashed line, the bearish scenario remains intact. Above that important line, a bullish scenario of riches and wealth is waiting.
評論: Sorry, wrong image. Here is the image matching the above text.
I just changed a detail on the scenario. I moved the red dashed line from 12787 down to 12230. This means, as long as BTCUSD remains below 12230, the bearish scenario is intact. Above 12230, a bullish scenario will take over.
We still see the Americans testing the upside. After a while, they will give up and the price of the Bitcoin will fall to 9005 and the showdown between Bulls and Bears starts.
As there is no CFD-trading on weekends, we will lose that profit from the drop from 12985 down to 11300.

This was an action rich weekend. Therefore, we will look back to the most important events.

1. BTCUSD stayed inside the flag, the trend continuation pattern was climbing up to the red dashed line at 12787.

2. Around that important red line, a quarrel between Bulls and Bears flared up and the Bears won.

3. As predicted, the flag was broken on the lower side and the price is moving downwards. The target is 5568.

How will the price further develop?

There are two possibilities:
a) When Asian markets open, the lower side of the flag will propably get tested again. The same may happen when European markets open as well as US markets. If the lower borderline of the flag, which became a resistande line, holds, the price will start dropping again. We have to take in consideration the possibility of three major pull backs throughout Monday.
b) Alternatively, if panic breaks out, we will see a fast drop in the price of Bitcoin.

Don't know about that soon - there is a symmetry in the rally and the crash-so the timeline on the way down should be similar to the time on the way up. I think we do crash to $5000 and below, but it will play out over like 3 to months. It will first fall to 8000, then 7000, then 6000, and then finally 5000. Not in a straight line and it will zig zag with 30% up and down type insane swings as usual. Expect it to fall during futures expirations and for it to rally the days before hard forks to collect the dividend air drops.
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luckyhelper josephtse
@josephtse, your description matches a normal down-movement. However, just in case that panic spreads, a crash can go on much faster than that. I hope for all of us that the downwards movment of the Bitcoin's price will be controlled and in steps.
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