BogdanDimi

Correction may not be over, bull trap could follow

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Context
As per my previous analysis here, BTC             is moving within a well defined triangle pattern on the 1 day chart. The market refused an early breakout yesterday and you can see how it happened by analyzing the 4h chart above.

Current setup and likely outcome
BTC             completed an Elliott Wave impulse sequence (12345) uniting the edges of the larger timeframe triangle. The corrective wave A unfolded today and it looks like wave B may have started. Be careful if you want to trade it, it's not called a bull trap for nothing!

Given the larger triangle pattern , wave C may rest on the supporting trend line when it comes. That may be the sweet spot for long positions.

Alternative outcomes
First I should mention that I'm favoring the ABC pattern you see above over all other outcomes because 1) it plays in perfectly with the larger timeframe triangle and 2) it fits in nicely with the textbook impulse waves we've seen so far. However, we could also see:
- an ABCDE triangle that could end in a breakout that also ends the larger triangle.
- upward breakout instead of wave B (less likely due to Elliott pattern)
- wave C acting as trigger for downward breakout, thus ending the larger triangle pattern . I don't think wave C will get that far down, but we'll have to see how the red line support holds before we can rule this one out.

Ways to play this set-up
- Wave B could earn some short term profits if played wisely or grant the possibility of favorably exiting previously placed trades.
- If we do see a wave C, one could open an average sized long position when the price hits the red support line and add to it gradually as the bounce-back is confirmed.

This post reflects my opinion and is not to be considered financial advice.
評論: Lower edge of triangle touched. Right now it's bounce-back or breakout and I'm favoring bounce-back. If you draw a line that unites the candlestick highs from the point where price peaked (marked with 5 on above chart) to the point where it touched the red line just now, you'll see the resistance that price will have to first break to confirm recovery. Right now it's at around 14500 and going lower as time passes.
Watching for a Head and Shoulders myself
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Could you clarify the anchor points of the lower part of your triangle? I can see the resistance line for the upper part, but I'm not sure what is forming the down line of the triangle, only one anchor point in the bigger support ~11k. Thanks.
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@dnunes, it's the support line confirmed by the lows on Nov 12 (5.6k), Dec 22nd (11.1k) and Dec 30th (12k). You can see the bigger picture here:
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dnunes PRO BogdanDimi
@BogdanDimi, thanks. My zoom out refused to go that far in this idea.
Let's see that 15k breaking!
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