BTC/USD (Bitcoin) – Smart Money Trap & Expansion Thesis

📍 Chart Published: May 31, 2025 | 1D Timeframe
📈 Current Price: $104,712
🔍 Structure Type: Smart Money Concepts + Fibonacci Confluence + BOS/CHoCH

🧠 Technical Breakdown
🔺 Premium Supply Zone Rejection
Price recently rejected the Premium Zone ($110K–112K), leaving behind a weak high and confirming institutional selling pressure.

The rejection occurred after tapping the 0.886 retracement at ~$107,735 and forming a Break of Structure (BOS) below $103,000.

🔻 Pullback Zones
Equilibrium Zone (EQ): ~$93,255 — Critical re-accumulation area and liquidity magnet.

Stacked Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and Fibonacci levels align around this zone, strengthening its magnetism.

If EQ fails, secondary support sits near the Discount Zone (80,000–85,000).

🌀 Projected Move (White Arrow)
Price is expected to retrace to EQ (~$93K) → sweep liquidity → create higher low → initiate a parabolic impulse leg toward $135K–$149K.

Long-term Fibonacci extensions target:

1.618 extension: $135,121

2.0 extension: $149,202 (final rally exhaustion)

📈 Probability Model
Scenario Description Probability Rationale
📉 Retrace to EQ (~$93K) Sweep of liquidity & reaccumulation 70% Strong confluence of CHoCH, FVG, EQ zone, and SMC entry logic
🔁 Bounce at EQ → Parabolic Rally Bullish reversal with target at $135–149K 60% Structure remains bullish unless EQ breaks
🧨 Deeper Drop to $85K–$80K Break of EQ, move into deeper discount zone 30% Only triggered by severe macro panic or BTC-specific FUD
📈 Immediate Rally w/o Pullback Break of $112K and price discovery 15% Low volume, extended move makes this unlikely without major catalyst

🏦 Macro Overview – Bitcoin Q2 2025 Context
🔋 ETF Flows & Institutional Positioning
BTC Spot ETF inflows have slowed since May but remain net positive over the month.

Institutions are likely waiting for a pullback before re-entering — adding weight to the EQ zone retest thesis.

💵 U.S. Macro Outlook
Fed Pause Likely in June, with July cuts increasingly probable.

Liquidity injection + dovish pivot = risk-on environment favorable for BTC if confirmed.

🌎 Global Flows
De-dollarization narratives, unstable fiat in LATAM/EM, and BTC's halving narrative continue to support long-term bullish demand.

⚠️ Risks
Mt. Gox creditor sell pressure expected Q3.

Crypto regulation uncertainty in U.S. and EU.

High beta to tech sector drawdowns if equities retrace.