Bitcoin: Lower highs... Lower Lows?
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Price topped at 7400. looking bearish here, will we finally get 5k or lower? price action nearly identical to the end of July:
- Trendline resistance (better seen on weekly tradingview.com/x/daCrcur5/)
- Major MA resistance (Note: 1d 128MA ~ 1W 20MA, last time it was 1D 200MA ~ 1W 30MA)
- reversal a couple days after the daily 9: drop came after daily 9 when lower time frames were showing 9s or 8s.
-last three candles (red 1, 2, 3): are the same as the red 1, 2, 3 at July's end. Note yellow circles.
- the 2 and 3 candles have wicks at identical lows: showing support in the previous price zone before collapsing through
- MACD bearish cross from bullish territory into negative territory
what is different:
- no bearish divergence to support short thesis
- MACD made a lower high than the previous 3 highs of 400. this could mean that the rising MACD support will not hold as a MACD reversal length would have to be very short before bullish momentum enters. previous MACD drops had values of 1050, 850 and then 750. so we are seeing drops decreasing in size by 100-200 MACD points at a time. following that we could see 1D MACD drop 550-650, bringing us to mid June MACD values.
Can we break 6K and make 5K or lower?
are we looking for a quintuple bottom here? Bouncing off of 6k with lower highs doesn't look good. We havent made a higher high.. this IS a bear market still, so im looking for shorting opportunities - ride the trend. The massive ascending triangle suggests we break 6k hard, this could be it. lengthof the triangle is 6k, or 50% of peak to bottom (refer to weekly tradingview.com/x/daCrcur5/). since we wont fall 6k from 6k, a 50% move seems possibly, bringing 3k into serious contention.
How to trade
lower time frames show resistance on the 6550 and 6300 levels. buy positions near these lines and stops just outside, next move outside this range should be strong and decisive. because previous 9 red line is only $150 below support i dont see it being significant.
None of this is advice dont blame if you get rekt!
- Trendline resistance (better seen on weekly tradingview.com/x/daCrcur5/)
- Major MA resistance (Note: 1d 128MA ~ 1W 20MA, last time it was 1D 200MA ~ 1W 30MA)
- reversal a couple days after the daily 9: drop came after daily 9 when lower time frames were showing 9s or 8s.
-last three candles (red 1, 2, 3): are the same as the red 1, 2, 3 at July's end. Note yellow circles.
- the 2 and 3 candles have wicks at identical lows: showing support in the previous price zone before collapsing through
- MACD bearish cross from bullish territory into negative territory
what is different:
- no bearish divergence to support short thesis
- MACD made a lower high than the previous 3 highs of 400. this could mean that the rising MACD support will not hold as a MACD reversal length would have to be very short before bullish momentum enters. previous MACD drops had values of 1050, 850 and then 750. so we are seeing drops decreasing in size by 100-200 MACD points at a time. following that we could see 1D MACD drop 550-650, bringing us to mid June MACD values.
Can we break 6K and make 5K or lower?
are we looking for a quintuple bottom here? Bouncing off of 6k with lower highs doesn't look good. We havent made a higher high.. this IS a bear market still, so im looking for shorting opportunities - ride the trend. The massive ascending triangle suggests we break 6k hard, this could be it. lengthof the triangle is 6k, or 50% of peak to bottom (refer to weekly tradingview.com/x/daCrcur5/). since we wont fall 6k from 6k, a 50% move seems possibly, bringing 3k into serious contention.
How to trade
lower time frames show resistance on the 6550 and 6300 levels. buy positions near these lines and stops just outside, next move outside this range should be strong and decisive. because previous 9 red line is only $150 below support i dont see it being significant.
None of this is advice dont blame if you get rekt!
註釋
prices are stalling around 6200, sequential counts are flipping on most time frames. We could see some more consolidation like we did in early August. With lower bear power, bullish targets are in play for the short term. Bullish potential is up to ~6900 where the trendline and 128 daily MA intersect. it would be surprising to see prices push through that level. if we get there, im expecting a move down to 6k again
註釋
UPSIDE TARGET REACHED:
128 MA hits 6900 with price resistance. Alts made big moves last couple days but BTC resistance and yesterdays flash selloff to 6500 shows bull power is fading. Alts will get hit harder than btc as usual. this could be the break that could take us below 6k. Rejection of the flat bottom triangle continuation pattern would be when we make a higher high - we've gone all of 2018 without managing that.
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