BTC Bounce to 68K or Down to 60K? 98% Hit Probability

2024年8月2日

The 5-minute trend is bearish and currently being challenged. We expect a revisit to the lows and potentially a new lowest low.


The 15-minute trend is similar, showing a bearish outlook.


The 1-hour trend is clearly bearish, and we anticipate a retest of the lowest low at the minimum.


However, the 4-hour trend is holding onto its bullishness, so we expect a revisit closer to the highest high.


Based on this analysis, we expect a lower low. But how low, and where is the reversion zone? The highest probability zone is around $60k, and this is where I will be looking to enter long positions again.

Understanding the Indicator:
I use one proprietary indicator called ORMA, which helps me understand the trend and when it is being challenged.

Light Blue Lines: Fast-moving trend
Black Lines: Mid-trend
Salmon Lines: Long trend

Each trend has a thin and thick version of the line. The thicker line indicates the direction, while the distance between them signifies the expected move's magnitude. This indicator follows the Reversion Zone theory and the system I developed.

Feel free to share your thoughts or ask any questions!

Green pips to all 🤑

2024年8月3日

註釋

We have one more zone that is highly probable to hit, $57k. We are already at the value zone, but feel free to chase greater value if you have the patience for it.


We are looking at 3-4 weeks before the next high and probably a few days to a week before the bottom is confirmed.

2024年8月5日

註釋

The momentum is too great for BTC to hold current levels. I expect BTC to fall much further, down to $37k, before consolidating for a few weeks to a month.

2024年8月5日

註釋

After reviewing things more extensively, we could expect another bounce from here.


We have a high volume; we are still within the channel. The center of the channel is highly probable. Global instability will eventually bring more demand to Crypto/BTC (digital gold). It's possible the price might crash a bit more and that will trigger the FED to act. Cryptos are at a great value level similar to 2021. Here is my full analysis of that.

My exit is set to $66k this time.

But we aren't done with pain; more pain will come.

2024年8月7日

註釋

As you can see, the price went up to correct the irrational move that we saw in the market (the flash crash that was extremely fear-based). This is what I call reversion.

Here are the zones for today. I'm expecting at least a small drop near the lowest low.