FlaviusTodorius67
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Bitcoin shatters all moderate price predictions on tradingview

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
So I saw a lot of predictions claiming 3500, 3700 or 4000 as the top.
Either those people are trolls, or they fail to realize that bitcoin             growth spurts are NON-LINEAR !
Meaning that after each havling, a hyper-exponential growth sets in, leading to a succession of insane rallies.

People then search for reasons, conspiracy theories come up daily in bitcoin             land, whereas the reason why bitcoin            
is seeing such huge price increases is so simple: IT IS STILL THE HALVING EFFECT !

Growing worldwide demand + half the supply of before July 2016 => Price explosion

And this comes hyper-exponentially.

So I am not really surprised by these figures, and I think it will top around 20K in february 2018.

Sure I am also guessing. We won´t get a 118-fold increase like in 2013, bitcoin             had a much lower marketcap back then.

So conservatively speakling, I took "only" a 37-fold increase, about 1/3 of the 2013 increase.

The tops are getting further and further apart, from 500 to 780 is not even a factor of 2, same from 780 to 1320.
But then from 1320 to 3000, about 2,5 fold! This means that the tops are getting further apart, meaning that the next top
will certainly not be "only" 5K.
How this will play out, nobody knows, but one thing is certain: Bitcoin             will again surprise many people :)
評論: Ok, so BTC takes longer than anticipated. It seems that the rallies are taking much longer than they did back in 2013. As bitcoin grows, apparently so do the rally timeframes grow.

After this correction, I would say that the bullish picture is intact. It briefly touched the MA20 at 2980, but did not go lower, which is bullish IMHO.

That is the picture I see at the moment:

https://ibb.co/jUiaUQ
This was the best forecast that I've seen from 2017
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holy fuck, Nostradamus the great?
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@arandon, Thanks, but, if you look at my other predictions, I get stuff wrong too XD
I am trying though. Currently I am more bearish inclined, however, if BTC does not go below 6k soon, I will become bullish again and my above chart might hold true after all.
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arandon FlaviusTodorius67
@FlaviusTodorius67, my guess is that we're somewhere around June 8, 2015 right now.
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arandon FlaviusTodorius67
@FlaviusTodorius67, at that point, we should go to 8k fist, then back to 6k, and then 12-13k
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This is a hell of prediction sir, awesome.
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@burkitt, Thanks :) I get lucky from time to time, hehe.
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Impressive prediction. Any reason why you have abandoned this idea despite it being close to spot on? Why do you now see a very long bear market and last year when you posted this you saw a smaller bear market and then continuation up? Sick if we do bottom out now and continue up then this chart will be even more impressive.

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@Johnsdad, Hi, thanks :) I am amazed myself that this prediction holds so well, because it was one of my more simple ones, with linear lines in the logarithmic chart. In the past months I went gradually to the bearmarket idea, instead of this shorter correction, because of the fractal structure BTC is unfolding, and because I moved away from linear trendlines in the log chart. I think that there trendlines are actually bent, like here:

It does not make sense longterm for BTC trendlines to just continue up forever, there must be a saturation point, that's why I moved away from the linear lines. That however would of course mean, that the real support is lower than in the linear case, where it is at around 6k. In the case of bent trend lines, we would be at around 3k. That's how I came to the more bearish prediction. That and the monthly Stoch RSI picture, which seemingly likes to fluctuate in 2 year intervals.
However, if we do not break below 6k within the next 2 months, I will invalidate the bearmarket scenario, and the beginning of a new bullmarket could be indeed nearer than I thought.
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any update on this after the big volatility last few days?
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