Bitcoin, my Road Map From 8 Months ago
已更新
This analysis will be about the big picture, what i had in mind past half year. This whole view/picture/scenario, is for me, maybe the only way to become long term bullish on Bitcoin. Most of my followers, especially long term ones, know i have never been a real bull on crypto, just never trusted this market. So in other words maybe, this picture from the chart above, might be the only way for me to believe in a big bull trend for the coming year.
I have shown this chart below several times now past half year, it was and still is my road map. Main reason why i always try to do this, is to stay objective and NOT get caught up in the madness of the masses. Once again, so many times now i can't even count it anymore, most people have fell for the trap once again.
A second reason actually for this is, just from my experience of how markets tends to move on the higher time frame.
This Gold chart i showed in my previous analysis, is actually a very nice example of what the bulls want to see coming months.
Okay now i will explain the chart above, of course assuming we will continue to drop coming weeks to the low 7K's. As you can see, i have used the 2018 price movement, only to compare things and to make it easier for you to visualize what i have in mind. Back then we can also see a somewhat curved shape. Had a few bounces from that support, but they all fell short. Now what is very important, a lesson learning from 2018, we do NOT want to see it crawl around that support zone for a long period. It's okay to see it get tested a few times, but want to see some strong bounces in the mean time. If we then can form something like a neckline around 10.000, then i think we could see a real bull market.
As mentioned months ago, i wanted to see a rally from the 6/7K, which we had and was even bigger than i thought it would be. The KEY moment would still be the retest though, which i assume is the current wave. So i want to see price drop all the way back to 6500/7500, preferably around 6800/7000. To see if the market is willing again to buy those prices and make a rock solid support zone, just as we had at the 6000 in 2018, but obviously better and stronger than 2018. But if this KEY moment fails, similar to 2018, than we should expect a similar period as the end of 2018.
So, this is no short term prediction, not an analysis that says we will drop to 7000. This is just to stay focused, objective in case we do make a big drop coming weeks. That we do not become super bears if we see a big dump coming week that gives the impression that we are in a big bear trend. For the ones who remember, my H&S bear trap analysis from Nov. H&S patterns were popping up all over the place, bear market and end of crypto or whatever more. Now it's not that i have a crystal ball or very smart to see these things coming. If you do this long enough, get trapped enough times, you try to find the cause of this. Why do i get trapped, even though you knew it could happen, because it wasn't the first time, but it's some damn hard NOT to get influenced by the media or whatever else there is.
Just think about it. We all know we need to buy low and sell high. But how come most get super bullish at the highs, while price is pumping like crazy (like a few weeks ago), so buying the highs and why do people become overly bearish when price keeps on dumping, breaking all supports. Don't get me wrong, it's super hard, even for very experienced people. Lets just make the conclusion, that it's always important to be open minded. You should not always have doubts and be scared of course, but be open minded. Do not ignore certain signs, do not just look for signs that confirm YOUR view. Always view the market/chart as if you do NOT have a position. As if, you don't have a position but need to take a side, but you only get one shot. With that in mind, view the market and see if you still think the same. If you can not figure it out, i suggest to do a very small size or even better simply stay out until you do see it more clearly.
Will try to make a new Bitcoin analysis tomorrow, also for the alts i did yesterday. Good luck all.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
I have shown this chart below several times now past half year, it was and still is my road map. Main reason why i always try to do this, is to stay objective and NOT get caught up in the madness of the masses. Once again, so many times now i can't even count it anymore, most people have fell for the trap once again.
A second reason actually for this is, just from my experience of how markets tends to move on the higher time frame.
This Gold chart i showed in my previous analysis, is actually a very nice example of what the bulls want to see coming months.
Okay now i will explain the chart above, of course assuming we will continue to drop coming weeks to the low 7K's. As you can see, i have used the 2018 price movement, only to compare things and to make it easier for you to visualize what i have in mind. Back then we can also see a somewhat curved shape. Had a few bounces from that support, but they all fell short. Now what is very important, a lesson learning from 2018, we do NOT want to see it crawl around that support zone for a long period. It's okay to see it get tested a few times, but want to see some strong bounces in the mean time. If we then can form something like a neckline around 10.000, then i think we could see a real bull market.
As mentioned months ago, i wanted to see a rally from the 6/7K, which we had and was even bigger than i thought it would be. The KEY moment would still be the retest though, which i assume is the current wave. So i want to see price drop all the way back to 6500/7500, preferably around 6800/7000. To see if the market is willing again to buy those prices and make a rock solid support zone, just as we had at the 6000 in 2018, but obviously better and stronger than 2018. But if this KEY moment fails, similar to 2018, than we should expect a similar period as the end of 2018.
So, this is no short term prediction, not an analysis that says we will drop to 7000. This is just to stay focused, objective in case we do make a big drop coming weeks. That we do not become super bears if we see a big dump coming week that gives the impression that we are in a big bear trend. For the ones who remember, my H&S bear trap analysis from Nov. H&S patterns were popping up all over the place, bear market and end of crypto or whatever more. Now it's not that i have a crystal ball or very smart to see these things coming. If you do this long enough, get trapped enough times, you try to find the cause of this. Why do i get trapped, even though you knew it could happen, because it wasn't the first time, but it's some damn hard NOT to get influenced by the media or whatever else there is.
Just think about it. We all know we need to buy low and sell high. But how come most get super bullish at the highs, while price is pumping like crazy (like a few weeks ago), so buying the highs and why do people become overly bearish when price keeps on dumping, breaking all supports. Don't get me wrong, it's super hard, even for very experienced people. Lets just make the conclusion, that it's always important to be open minded. You should not always have doubts and be scared of course, but be open minded. Do not ignore certain signs, do not just look for signs that confirm YOUR view. Always view the market/chart as if you do NOT have a position. As if, you don't have a position but need to take a side, but you only get one shot. With that in mind, view the market and see if you still think the same. If you can not figure it out, i suggest to do a very small size or even better simply stay out until you do see it more clearly.
Will try to make a new Bitcoin analysis tomorrow, also for the alts i did yesterday. Good luck all.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
註釋
Know i have been bearish since the highs, sticking to my plan i showed yesterday. But, this is dropping harder and faster than i thought it would be. On one hand, it's actually perfect. I answered a few questions week ago asking me:Don't think price would go to 7000, price would be much to perfect for people to buy at those "great" prices again. My answer was: well, Bitcoin will prob get dumped hard again making most/all of these bulls bears again.
So it's actually doing as it should. However, i can't help but worry a bit. I have never assumed the stock market and crypto are correlated. At least, i always chose to ignore it. I personally just don't see why they SHOULD be correlated. But now, past weeks, the dump here for crypto is almost in line with the stock market. And it just keeps on dumping, much more extreme that i could have guessed if you would ask me a week ago.
So having thoughts, are some of the whales in this market, getting out? Not because they want to, but because they do crypto on the side (as an easy cash cow compared to stock market), because their assets (stocks) are getting in trouble with the big crash and they simply need to free up funds so they don't get margin calls or whatever other reason.
I hope it's a big coincidence, because i am afraid it might be VERY bad otherwise. So hoping this violence for Bitcoin is just exactly that, making bulls bears at the lows and not the reasons above. Just thinking out loud here, but something to keep in mind
註釋
Don't have time to make a new analysis on Bitcoin (stock market is keeping be busy :) ). So will just update here. Yesterday i showed a potential temp low could have been made for the first time since the big drop. Looked like a tiny bullish wedge (green circle no the left), but warned for a break down as well (since the market is just sooooo weak and dead). Well droped and then pumped but once again short lived. I did mentioned, that 8100ish was a key level, break of that could mean a bigger correction could be in play then. Think for now that level is around 8000, but unfortunately, thats a big step away from current prices, so not a great RR from this point.
Now, looks like a second attempt, a bigger wedge than the other one. But again it starting to look as if there are just not enough bulls out there. The yellow circle we can actually already see, the wedge was complete and price pumped a bit there, 120 points. But it got sold off just as quickly again. These are all signs of weakness here. So i really find it hard to predict a low here.
Think maybe for now, 7750ish is an important level as well here, so maybe something will happen if we get above it.
註釋
If bulls can hold 7710ish this time, we could see another wave up. Maybe even a short squeeze, assuming bears are satisfied with their profits and will panic close their shorts. But needs to be a big wave, like 300/400 points. Think only then we can say a correction has started, and ABC.As i am writing this, again sell pressure pushing it back down. Not much room left i think
註釋
Looking decent at the moment. Got sold again, but no dump and bulls have bought it back up again. Now it looks as if we have a neckline now, so think if 7900ish breaks, good chance the bigger correction has started. An ABC correction would be the most logical play then. But that does mean, unless we see an extreme move up, we will get another move down and usually with a new low. 註釋
If it breaks up, very important to see a quick move, actually a short squeeze move. Anything slow, could still end up like all other failed attempts past days註釋
Taking it's time, not a good sign. Think maybe should see the trend line as a max註釋
Hmmmm, it's moving so slowly. been moving up which is good, but this is too slow. So it looks too much like a correctional move than the start of THE correction, which usually is an impulse move (a short squeeze, shorts that buy back). Just not feeling that at all. It could still happen of course, but chances are getting smaller as time passes here. Maybe the shorts start to close if that red zone breaks. So a bit tough here, because normally it should have dropped sooner if this was a failed "rally". Would just be careful on both sides. Also adjusted the trend line from my previous update, this one looks better positioned.
註釋
Amazing, once again Bitcoin got dumped when the stock market took another big hit past 2 hours, just find it very weird this coincidence. On the left, we can see it is following the ABC game plan, but tbh, i did not expect to see a dump like this. So now its difficult because of it. So think we need to see 7700ish hold to create that higher low. 註釋
Bit dissapoitning it dropped all the way back down again, but the green support is still holding, so there is some hope. Also seems as if that channel broke, but we need to see some conviction upwards soon though註釋
Like Bitcoin is getting dragged down by the stock market. Normally, it's a very bad sign that the break up from that channel failed. Think we need to break the 7900ish soon, tough to give a time frame, but would say within an hour or so, maybe 2. Otherwise the reaction normally of this failed break up is a drop. That would prob mean the green zone will break and that is bad news. Assume it's clear it's a bit guessing now, for me as well. I am still quite bearish, but a correction up is what normally should happen now. So think just be careful here, there will always be easier setups to play
註釋
Maybe, a double bottom is a backup plan, but its a pure guess, because i don't really like the shape of it. That dump we had yesterday, doesnt fit a double bottom normally. So it's just thinking ahead, in case we drop but see the W bottom support hold 
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