Bitcoin ABC Correction Within the ABC
已更新
So far the plan i drew 3/4 weeks ago, played out pretty nicely, therefore at the moment it is still my game plan and i have no reason yet to change it. What was pretty funny, think i posted it a day before the 64/65k high, was the following: I was talking to a good friend of mine (who doesn't trade crypto), that works at small factory with 200 employees, he was telling me, the cleaning told me today that she was buying crypto. Immediately Red Alert inside my head and i wrote about it in my channel. Also because it coincideded perfectly with my short term bearish view for Bitcoin.
The days after it didn't matter where i went, everyone's wifes and kids were even trading crypto :).
Now of course this is not a golden rule and 100% sure thing that it's the end of all the fun we had past half year. But it is most definitely a reason to be on high alert and to think about where you stand with your portfolio. Another, not at all surprising thing is the following. I have some people from my groups who i talk with regularly with significant crypto portfolios. As everyone who was in at least half year ago, made some crazy profits. I was asking them the same questions:
1) Do you remember what you told me in half way 2018? "Yes i do, if i would get a second chance to sell at the ATH prices of 2018, i will most definitely sell!!"
2) Do you remember what you asked me to do for you back in 2018? " Yes i do, that if we would ever reach those 2018 ATH prices again, to help me be smarter this time.
All conversations with everyone took many hours, but too much to discuss. One more question i would ask them, and they all gave the same answer. Even some friends/people i know here in my home town who made 6/7 figure profits, would give the same answer to this question as my vips:
What do you think about selling a good % of your portfolio, to secure some profits?: (With some i was doing a video call, they were all making funny faces LOL, including my friends). " Uuhhmmmm, aaaahhhh, Aaarrrggggg, I don't know, this time, i really do think it's just the beginning". With some i would almost fall of my chair from laughing so hard :).
Eventually, my conclusion was, which i would literally tell them, is that they are junkies, junkies to the extreme profits they were making in such a short time frame. It's no surprise at all, because this is what markets do to the more inexperienced people, they give you the feeling that the only way is up. They give you that feeling, that only an idiot would sell here. Mostly bacause its been buy the dip for a long time now and because the gaines are so extreme. Just like with the basic pyramid scheme. I heard stories of maybe 20/40 people back in 2018, about Bitconnect. Not one person, took out even $1 dollar, everyone was putting in all they were earning back in, to compound the profits and earn even more. Even the ones who started with that pyramid almost a year before it collapsed. The bull trend of past half year or so, is somewhat similar, because everyone who was in and Hodled, made at least 5X and some even did like 50x.
Conclusion of this, each and everyone of them, surpassed their goal they had a year or 2 ago. Some even with 200/1000% more with what they were dreaming about. But still it's not enough!!! So trust me when i say, it doesn't matter if your balance went up from $50 to $10.000, or from $100.000 to 50 Million, everyone says and does the same thing. It's simply never enough.
What nobody understand is, if things go wrong and we turn to a bear market again, they will never sell if they drop under a certain level. If you ask them now, they will all say, i will sell everything if it drops 20/30% (or whatever number). But the day it happens, not even one will pull the trigger to sell. Then they see it bounce, and think "yes, i made a good decision, it was just a shake out". But then we get a lower high and drop even lower. Then it drops below their critical level, that they get depressed (even though they are up maybe 1000% (or much more) from a year ago). With that reaching the mindset of thinking, F it, i will sit and wait and Hodl. Think everyone who was in this market in 2017/18 knows exactly what i am talking about.
I can't predict the future and neither can you, nobody. Except maybe the people who have the money or tweets to move markets. But why risk all you have if there is an easy solution to this all. Which is, sell a part of your portfolio and risk with the rest. At least then you have secured something. To be clear, i am not saying bear market has started, it could, but there is nothing real yet to say that. Just don't let others mess up the plan you possibly had months ago, especially not by friends who have no experience. Also, don't get influenced by all the news and things your read from others. Because in 2018, during the rallies, the market would always be flooded with bullish news. Stick to your own plan and try not to be too greedy.
Selling a % and see market go 10x, you earn less than you could have and maybe feel bad about it for a while, but eventually you will acknowledge its a luxury problem, you could even laugh about that. Never taking profit, having reached levels you didn't even dream about a year ago. Then a year later seeing your portfolio having dropped 90%, could be devastating for the rest of your life and decision making for everything you will do from then forward. Possibly making the losses even bigger than only finacially!!
Okay, now to the business at hand. In the chart you can see the big ABC correction, which is still a likely scenario for the coming month or 2. The bounce we had from the 47k has been pretty strong so far, but today it has been slowing down a bit. At some point, we should get a drop to make a higher low (yellow line). Whether it starts now or we go up some more, but most of the time it happens. Very rarely see it go up in a straight line after such a big drop we has past week. There is a chance that the correction is already over, meaning the ABC is already done. So which one will it be? For that i try to look at 2 realistic outcomes, which are the 2 blue lines in the middle, number 1 and 2. So these 2 represent possible movement of the yellow ABC.
If we would see something like number 1, then chances are the big correction is already done and we might continue to rally to make a new ATH coming week or two. If we see something like number 2, then my game plan will be the bigger ABC correction.
Short term we have a big resistance zone up to 57K. 60K should also give a lot of resistance. Think a break of 62Kish, would mean that the ABC correction is probably already finished (real confirmation is break the 65K high).
On the downside 52/53K is a good support zone, think 50K, maybe 49K should be the real max (in case we see a drop coming days). About alts, its much more difficult to say, because even in 2018, after the ATH was set, we would always see some individual alts still pump like crazy, despite being at the start of a bear market.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
The days after it didn't matter where i went, everyone's wifes and kids were even trading crypto :).
Now of course this is not a golden rule and 100% sure thing that it's the end of all the fun we had past half year. But it is most definitely a reason to be on high alert and to think about where you stand with your portfolio. Another, not at all surprising thing is the following. I have some people from my groups who i talk with regularly with significant crypto portfolios. As everyone who was in at least half year ago, made some crazy profits. I was asking them the same questions:
1) Do you remember what you told me in half way 2018? "Yes i do, if i would get a second chance to sell at the ATH prices of 2018, i will most definitely sell!!"
2) Do you remember what you asked me to do for you back in 2018? " Yes i do, that if we would ever reach those 2018 ATH prices again, to help me be smarter this time.
All conversations with everyone took many hours, but too much to discuss. One more question i would ask them, and they all gave the same answer. Even some friends/people i know here in my home town who made 6/7 figure profits, would give the same answer to this question as my vips:
What do you think about selling a good % of your portfolio, to secure some profits?: (With some i was doing a video call, they were all making funny faces LOL, including my friends). " Uuhhmmmm, aaaahhhh, Aaarrrggggg, I don't know, this time, i really do think it's just the beginning". With some i would almost fall of my chair from laughing so hard :).
Eventually, my conclusion was, which i would literally tell them, is that they are junkies, junkies to the extreme profits they were making in such a short time frame. It's no surprise at all, because this is what markets do to the more inexperienced people, they give you the feeling that the only way is up. They give you that feeling, that only an idiot would sell here. Mostly bacause its been buy the dip for a long time now and because the gaines are so extreme. Just like with the basic pyramid scheme. I heard stories of maybe 20/40 people back in 2018, about Bitconnect. Not one person, took out even $1 dollar, everyone was putting in all they were earning back in, to compound the profits and earn even more. Even the ones who started with that pyramid almost a year before it collapsed. The bull trend of past half year or so, is somewhat similar, because everyone who was in and Hodled, made at least 5X and some even did like 50x.
Conclusion of this, each and everyone of them, surpassed their goal they had a year or 2 ago. Some even with 200/1000% more with what they were dreaming about. But still it's not enough!!! So trust me when i say, it doesn't matter if your balance went up from $50 to $10.000, or from $100.000 to 50 Million, everyone says and does the same thing. It's simply never enough.
What nobody understand is, if things go wrong and we turn to a bear market again, they will never sell if they drop under a certain level. If you ask them now, they will all say, i will sell everything if it drops 20/30% (or whatever number). But the day it happens, not even one will pull the trigger to sell. Then they see it bounce, and think "yes, i made a good decision, it was just a shake out". But then we get a lower high and drop even lower. Then it drops below their critical level, that they get depressed (even though they are up maybe 1000% (or much more) from a year ago). With that reaching the mindset of thinking, F it, i will sit and wait and Hodl. Think everyone who was in this market in 2017/18 knows exactly what i am talking about.
I can't predict the future and neither can you, nobody. Except maybe the people who have the money or tweets to move markets. But why risk all you have if there is an easy solution to this all. Which is, sell a part of your portfolio and risk with the rest. At least then you have secured something. To be clear, i am not saying bear market has started, it could, but there is nothing real yet to say that. Just don't let others mess up the plan you possibly had months ago, especially not by friends who have no experience. Also, don't get influenced by all the news and things your read from others. Because in 2018, during the rallies, the market would always be flooded with bullish news. Stick to your own plan and try not to be too greedy.
Selling a % and see market go 10x, you earn less than you could have and maybe feel bad about it for a while, but eventually you will acknowledge its a luxury problem, you could even laugh about that. Never taking profit, having reached levels you didn't even dream about a year ago. Then a year later seeing your portfolio having dropped 90%, could be devastating for the rest of your life and decision making for everything you will do from then forward. Possibly making the losses even bigger than only finacially!!
Okay, now to the business at hand. In the chart you can see the big ABC correction, which is still a likely scenario for the coming month or 2. The bounce we had from the 47k has been pretty strong so far, but today it has been slowing down a bit. At some point, we should get a drop to make a higher low (yellow line). Whether it starts now or we go up some more, but most of the time it happens. Very rarely see it go up in a straight line after such a big drop we has past week. There is a chance that the correction is already over, meaning the ABC is already done. So which one will it be? For that i try to look at 2 realistic outcomes, which are the 2 blue lines in the middle, number 1 and 2. So these 2 represent possible movement of the yellow ABC.
If we would see something like number 1, then chances are the big correction is already done and we might continue to rally to make a new ATH coming week or two. If we see something like number 2, then my game plan will be the bigger ABC correction.
Short term we have a big resistance zone up to 57K. 60K should also give a lot of resistance. Think a break of 62Kish, would mean that the ABC correction is probably already finished (real confirmation is break the 65K high).
On the downside 52/53K is a good support zone, think 50K, maybe 49K should be the real max (in case we see a drop coming days). About alts, its much more difficult to say, because even in 2018, after the ATH was set, we would always see some individual alts still pump like crazy, despite being at the start of a bear market.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
註釋
New Bitcoin analysis:
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。