Not enough upside power

Morning folks,

As we've suggested last time, daily Oversold could push price a bit higher to test intraday Fib levels, but it is not enough to overcome fundamental reasons of weakness. Thus, yesterday's Fed statement has pushed BTC back down again.
To keep it clear - we need action above 42K area to get only the first signs of changing. Intaday "lower-lows, lower highs" tendency has to be broken first, before we start thinking about investing. Currently we do not see it.

Taking the detailed view on recent performance - market has tried to form upside AB-CD but was able to reach only minor 0.618 extension. CD leg is slower than AB and recent reversal already pushed price under the "C" point, forming bearish reversal swing. Thus, although we do not exclude chance for another one, larger AB=CD upside pattern, downside continuation seems more probable. For example, it might starts with H&S pattern, but not necessary.

That's being said, we still do not see good investment background and keep our 26K target and final point of the initial swing down.