BTC 10 more months down?

2018年10月4日

Here we have BTCUSD weekly on log scale and Coppock on log scale too.

Background: the last major correction started at ~ Nov, 2013 and finished Dec, 2016. It took ~ 1100days. Lowest was around its half, ~600 days.

Hip: my biased prediction use the assumption that the current correction is similar to 2013-2016 in duration. (And yes, I might be wrong here.)

Biased prediction of mine:
- Correction started: Dec, 2017
- Lowest values might be coming around Aug, 2019.

Momentums I use:
-- if Coppock crosses its own moving average
- Crossing MAe200
- Some bit more difficult linear + logistic regression modells

So: I might be buying in under 4k, may be in mid-2019.

This is NOT a trading advise, just my biased ideas...Use stop-sell, always calculate risk and try to avoid FOMO and learn about linear regression models.

Criticism welcome!

2018年11月24日

註釋

BTC did go under 4k much earlier than I predicted, BTC did cross MA200, ALMA200, VWMA 200. As of now, my indicators are contradicting each other, so I have no idea...whether I should buy in or wait. Those, who have no reserve to risk, shall not, I think. I wait 1-2 days before deciding and run some ARIMA meanwhile...

2018年12月7日

交易進行

Update: based on my biased predictive models, BTC might go under 2.1k for a very short time. So my entry point is set to 2099.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/l/lt3z4sRt.png

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This is NOT a trading advise, just my biased ideas...Use stop-sell, always calculate risk and try to avoid FOMO and learn about time-series models