Check out (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD...) 4h chart. Pretty clean bounce off that . There was no reason to believe in a full blown recovery, not yet. If this is accurate, I'd expect a continued downtrend. I just am uncertain how far it will go. As the market deflates, more and more of the new crowd of mainstream adopters will become disheartened/disillusioned.
I still think it's possible we are seeing a repeat of the 2013/2014 crash, or at least something very similar.. This would mean a long bear market, bottoming out around 4000. I think this is likely, considering the ferociousness of the last bull run, the number of people that have been burned by this downtrend, loss of confidence, etc.