BTCUSD: a pattern like 2017

BTCUSD, as of 2025, resembles the price movements in 2017. In 2017, after Trump was sworn in in January, there was a 38% drop until July. The narrative around this decline is again tariffs. The FED was again coy about cutting interest rates, etc. But as it is now, first the global M2 liquidity increase, then the FED and other central banks started quantitative easing and the minting, and then the customs agreements, and the market boomed. Then there was a 172% increase until September. After a quick correction of 40% in the same month, the top of the cycle was reached, this time with a massive 562% rise.

I predict that we are likely to see similar stories, only the price increases will not be as high as they were 8 years ago. The correction after the swearing-in ceremony was around 32% this year. In terms of technical targets, I expect a summer peak around 146k, followed by another 30-40% correction and then a blow-off top between 206-266k with a final madness and an entry into the bear market. Of course, this is purely a guess, an “educated guess” based on past macro and technical movements and the current situation. The condition that would invalidate all this and make us say “we are entering the bear market early” would be a weekly-monthly close below the 2024 peak at 73.8k. Wick down from there would not break the bull structure, as long as there is no weekly/monthly close. For me, the confirmation on the indicator side is that the Alpha Trend on the weekly chart is not selling. AT has been in a “BUY” position since January 2023.