BTC/USD Bullish Bear
已更新
Noting accurate Fibonacci retracement levels,
150 and 400 EMA and the RSI we can scout for the buys / the bottom.
150 EMA:
As you can see, over the history of BTC, we regularly dip to
and even pierce the 150 EMA, this is usually our buy signal.
What doesn't regularly happen is a candle opening and closing UNDER the 150 EMA... (bearish reversal candle)
The bearish reversal candle indication coupled with the breaking of a 45 day trendline meant
that a bounce off the 400 EMA ($6000) was expected. (Hindsight is 20/20)
400 EMA:
The last candle that opened and closed UNDER the 400 EMA
was in the June of 2014 - The year of the Mt Gox hack.
an 85% retrace and year-long bear market.
Note: I believe the market is too established and adoption is happening
too quickly to keep price at this level for very long.
RSI:
On this 4h chart we can see that this may not be the bottom.
Reversal still not confirmed (for me) until we bounce off the 150 EMA.
and a strong 4 hr push with volume and a break of the top trendline.
The RSI situation is interesting as on the 1D chart. We are the most oversold
we have been since August 2016.
Verdict, a number of analysts who I respect greatly think this is the bottom, I'm not so sure.
I expect one last trap and the bottom out at in the 5500 range unless we can get on top and bounce off the 150 EMA first.
Note: I have bought twice already and will not buy more unless we break out of the top trend-line with VOLUME or hit 5-6k.
150 and 400 EMA and the RSI we can scout for the buys / the bottom.
150 EMA:
As you can see, over the history of BTC, we regularly dip to
and even pierce the 150 EMA, this is usually our buy signal.
What doesn't regularly happen is a candle opening and closing UNDER the 150 EMA... (bearish reversal candle)
The bearish reversal candle indication coupled with the breaking of a 45 day trendline meant
that a bounce off the 400 EMA ($6000) was expected. (Hindsight is 20/20)
400 EMA:
The last candle that opened and closed UNDER the 400 EMA
was in the June of 2014 - The year of the Mt Gox hack.
an 85% retrace and year-long bear market.
Note: I believe the market is too established and adoption is happening
too quickly to keep price at this level for very long.
RSI:
On this 4h chart we can see that this may not be the bottom.
Reversal still not confirmed (for me) until we bounce off the 150 EMA.
and a strong 4 hr push with volume and a break of the top trendline.
The RSI situation is interesting as on the 1D chart. We are the most oversold
we have been since August 2016.
Verdict, a number of analysts who I respect greatly think this is the bottom, I'm not so sure.
I expect one last trap and the bottom out at in the 5500 range unless we can get on top and bounce off the 150 EMA first.
Note: I have bought twice already and will not buy more unless we break out of the top trend-line with VOLUME or hit 5-6k.
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註釋
Still, on track for another low, (This is where I get caught out) but I do not think a lower low, the momentum hasn't been strong enough to constitute any real reversal signs, the bulls still have time but I believe the overall sentiment is in favour of the bears, with that being said, I don't think we break the lower trend line again.
If we do, we re-evaluate.
Good luck everyone, in whatever position you choose.
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What incredible price action!
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