10/9 Good news and bad news...

10月10日

Overview:
Which would you prefer to hear first? Let’s start with the good news: the SPY has updated its all-time high. If you have a 401k or any other pension fund, you’re likely seeing gains. Also, it's hard to argue that a recession is looming when the stock market is booming.

Now for the bad news: crypto is down. Normally, this wouldn’t be alarming, as all markets fluctuate. But it's concerning when we see a divergence between the stock market and crypto. Even riskier tech stocks, like those in the QQQ index, climbed 0.79%. If traders are eager to buy equities, why not crypto, or at least BTCUSD ?

Tomorrow, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he delivers the CPI and Core CPI data along with initial jobless claims. Given that recent job reports nearly doubled expectations, we predict fewer jobless claims. The question is: will positive macroeconomic data help? On one hand, it means people have money to spend, which could benefit crypto. On the other hand, it could reduce the chances of aggressive rate cuts, keeping liquidity constrained, and preventing speculative assets from soaring.

BlackRock continues dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin but hasn’t touched its ETH ETF. When did ETH become so hated?

CME fedwatch tool shows an increase in the probability of no rate cut in November, up to 17.2%, while the chances of a one-base-point cut sit at 82.2%.

BTC TA:
W: BTC needs to close above 61.4k to keep bulls in the game. Unfortunately, after today's drop, BTC fell below this crucial level, breaking the bullish structure it had been building since September 7th. Another important level is 62.7k, the point of control for the entire 2024 bull run, which was rejected yesterday. This week is shaping up to print another red candle, following the previous week.

D: While the weekly levels are invalidated, the daily levels still offer hope. BTC bounced from the 60.6k support level, and we haven’t seen four consecutive red days since August. If tomorrow's CPI data hints at a bullish sentiment, we might see a small rally back to 62.1k.

4h: Price is currently closer to the lowest Bollinger Band, indicating it needs to catch up with its moving average.

1h: BTC has reached the Bollinger Bands' moving average, but for a stronger recovery, it needs to break beyond this level on the 4h chart to confirm a bounce.

Alts Relative to BTC:
TAO, SUI, and APT have reached higher highs, but with lower volumes, suggesting that the bullish trend is losing steam. These gains were likely driven by retail investors, FOMOing into the rally. Meanwhile, FTM is showing bearish MACD divergence on the 4-hour chart and was rejected at its weekly resistance of $0.69.

Bull Case:
At 60k, BTC is relatively cheap, considering how much adoption and recognition crypto has gained in 2024. Since we didn’t experience a massive sell-off in September and have held up into October, this might be your last chance to buy BTC at a sub-100k price. Additionally, we’re in the Fear territory on the Fear and Greed Index, which historically offers an 83% chance of profitability if bought during this phase.

Bear Case:
From a technical perspective, things look bearish. Many key support levels have been invalidated, and the likelihood of the Fed not cutting rates in November continues to rise.

Fear and Greed Index: 37 (Fear).

Prediction: BTC may rebound to 62.1k before resuming its decline. Expect TAO, SUI, and APT to follow BTC's movements, with a potential drop back to pre-BTC ETF levels, which could see declines of 55-60%.

Opportunities:
Short TAO, SUI, APT, FTM.