BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: 10K Will Be Psychological?

2017年11月27日

BTCUSD update: 9771 all time high reached and then retrace. Went higher than my 9600 target by 171 points (which is small relative to BTC) and is now showing some signs of minor selling. Will this market really correct this time? Or is it going straight to 10K?

If there is going to be a corrective move of more significance, the low of the just closed candle will have to be taken out which is 9231. IF that happens, the first support I will be watching is the 9040 area which is the .382 support measured from the 7870 low.

If that first support is taken out, the next level is the 8450 area which is the old resistance, and now a potential support upon any retest. Also the .382 of this entire swing measured from the 5400 low is now the 8100 area. The area between these two levels is where price consolidated before making these dramatic new highs. The combination of these factors would make this area ideal for a bullish reversal and second attempt to retest the high.

Keep in mind IF the 9231 low is not taken out, then this market is not correcting yet. It will likely drift higher. The 10K level will be a psychological resistance and major event for this market. So be prepared.

As far as new targets go, I measured the 1.0 extension from the 5400 low, and it shows 10,687 as the result. IF the market makes it to this level without any retrace, then it will be completing a zig zag formation that has some symmetry. Without getting too complicated, IF the market rejects the level quickly, this market could be on its way to forming the head of a very large head and shoulder formation. That would be a clear sign that a major retracement is coming. At the moment, this is all just a potential scenario based on the likeness of the current structure. Just something to be cognizant of IF the market chooses this scenario.

When I first started trading, I worked in an office with 300 traders. When the market got quiet around lunch time, many of them would pull out chess boards and play chess. I thought it was just to avoid trading slow markets, but there was another reason they chose chess. It helped sharpen their skills of anticipation and flexibility. The same mindset that we need to actively trade financial markets. I am not a chess player BUT it serves as a great example as far as how to structure your thought process when facing trading decisions. In chess, you are running through all the possible moves (scenarios) that your opponent can make, and you ADJUST as the game progresses and anticipate new possibilities as you receive new information (an unexpected move by your opponent). Of course in chess you are trying to outsmart your opponent, in trading there is no outsmarting, only adjusting. The market will always have the upper hand. In order to navigate financial markets consistently you must have a well defined strategy and it begins with a thought process. Start by thinking chess.

In summary, there are still no signs of weakness in this market. If selling is going to happen, the first signal will be the break of large time frame lows like 9231. Otherwise, the strength must be recognized and the possibility of reaching 10k is within reason. If you can't resist getting on board, at least be prepared if the music stops sooner than expected. These are unusual and rare conditions, which are great, but do not let the market fool you into thinking it is always going to be like this. That is when it sets you up to give it all back.

Comments and questions welcome.