BTC price prediction (just for fun)

已更新

Hi all,

I would like to share my new long-term analysis for BTC. It is very possible that similar ones have been done before but I publish mine here to track BTC's future moves.

As we can see in chart, BTC has experienced 3 main cycles. In the last two cycles, a bull-run staring from the Halving date is followed by

a retracement of 80% from marco top
a pullback of 250% from the macro bottom

If this theory is true, then the bottom of this cycle is confirmed at $15800. Now, what is happening and what will come?

On-going Accumulation
In my opinion, we are in a transition phase between two cycles. It means that BTC's trend is not clear until the next halving in April 2024.
Big players are accumulating BTC as much as possible before initiating a new major uptrend. Their manipulation will eliminate most retail holders.
If history repeats its-self, when approaching the new halving, BTC's price would be found in the upper-right quarter of the current yellow triangle, i.e prices at the end of this transition phase should be between $30000-$57000. I'd pick $44000 as a start of the next bullrun.

New bullrun
Halving-events had triggered three bullruns. Will it still be true next year, on 27th Arpil 2024? If we believe it, then a new major uptrend will set a new ATH.
As in the past, the next bullrun would last from 12 to 18 months. The important question is what will be the new record of BTC's price?
As a recall, during the first halving, BTC was 9300% up. In the second and the third, BTC made 3300% and 660% respectively. It could be 90K, 140K or , as many famous pro BTC predict.

I have no idea about the new ATH value. However, it would not be a 660% increase as in the previous cycle because the increasing speed has been slow down after each cycle.

What is your opinion about my macro view and about the future of BTC as well as other crypto-currency?

Finally, this is just a positive view about BTC. It's not a financial advice. Any other scenarios can also happen.

註釋

I would like to update on this analysis which is another view for long term (see link below). As I mentionned, I expect BTC prices to trade in the range $30000-$57000 until the halving. An right before the halving, prices are around $44000.