Bitcoin: Look For Lower High At 32K.

2022年5月15日

Bitcoin price structure still favors bearish momentum which means resistance levels are more likely to be respected while support levels are more likely to break (see my previous articles about the bearish environment). If you are looking for swing trades, then WAITING for a resistance level to be reached, followed by some form of confirmation would be the more conservative choice.

Here are the initial support/resistance boundaries for the coming week (see blue lines on chart):

28K support, 32K resistance.

How to use this effectively:

IF price probes back into the 28K area (can go as low as 26K) and shows evidence of buying activity in the form of a reversal pattern, then it would be a reasonable location for an aggressive swing trade long. Again, in this bearish environment, longs are less likely to follow through and while they can still work, the probability is not in your favor.

If price CLEARS this support zone, then a test of 25K becomes very likely. Keep in mind the overall structure and environment favor support breaks. This MEANS: buying into this and thinking "it's oversold" can get you into a very painful situation. There is no way to know if price is oversold at these levels. Don't bet on hope, instead focus on CONTROLLING YOUR RISK.

If price tests the 32K resistance (can go as high as 34K), then this is the area to be anticipating a bearish reversal and potential swing trade short. I don't short Bitcoin, but I can at least recognize the opportunities and bring that to the attention of others. WAITING for this scenario is the more conservative choice because it is on the side of the overall structure and momentum.

As I keep having to remind people, it is ineffective to try and figure out the next move. Let the market and all the fake gurus figure it out. It is better to be PREPARED for a potential level that you can ANTICIPATE in advance. That would be the next support (28K area) or resistance (32K area). NOONE knows which way the market will choose to go, so let IT choose. Gauge your probability and risk from point B not point A.

Stop clinging to logic, opinions or messages of hope proliferated by the fakes. The skill in this game has little to do with charting and everything to do with risk management.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.