BTCUSDT 4H – Key Support Test | Bounce or Breakdown?

Bitcoin has been in a clean uptrend for the past few weeks, making consistent higher highs and higher lows. Recently, we’ve seen a pullback that’s now testing a major confluence zone, which makes me lean bullish in the short term.

Here’s what I’m looking at:


1. 200 EMA (4H)
Price is currently testing the 200 EMA, which has acted as dynamic support throughout this uptrend. This is often a key level where bulls step back in after a healthy correction.

2. High Volume Node (102.5K–103.5K)
This area lines up with a visible HVN on the volume profile, suggesting strong previous acceptance and institutional interest. Holding this area implies a potential base for the next leg higher.

3. Retest of Ascending Trendline (Broken)
We’ve broken the minor ascending trendline, but price is now testing horizontal demand + EMA, which could act as the real support. This isn’t invalidating the uptrend structure yet — just a deeper pullback.

4. Demand Zone + Volume Spike (Recent)
The previous demand zone is still valid, and we saw a decent spike in sell volume into support — which could indicate a liquidity sweep or stop hunt, setting up for a reversal.

Trade Setup
📈 Long Setup: Bounce from Confluence Zone
Entry Zone: $102,300 – $103,300

Stop Loss: $101,400 (below HVN + 200 EMA)

Target 1: $106,000


Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5

This setup banks on BTC holding the 200 EMA and key HVN, continuing its overall bullish structure. A clean 4H bullish engulfing or a strong close above $104K would add even more confirmation.

Invalidation Criteria
If BTC closes a full 4H candle below $101,500 with no immediate buyback, I’ll consider the setup invalid and step aside — the next major HVN is around $96K, and I’ll look to long there instead.


BTC is pulling into a beautiful confluence of structure, volume, and dynamic support.
Short-term bearish pressure looks more like a corrective move within a bullish trend.
I’m looking to scale into longs if this zone holds. Tight invalidation and clean structure — great R/R.

Bullish Argument
First real test of 200 EMA since early April — trending markets often bounce here
Consolidation on top of prior demand — this could be a liquidity sweep / fakeout
High-volume support just below price = buyers likely interested here
We still haven't broken any key swing lows, so higher timeframe structure is intact

Bearish Risks to Watch
Trendline break and sustained lower highs = momentum shift
Lack of immediate bounce = could mean support is weakening
Break and close below $101.5K likely opens the door to $96K–$97K next HVN