BTC New ATH Environment

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Even though price convincingly closed above the ATH with a 1D CC, because it's a Monthly level (March 2024 ATH = level) you have to remain sceptic: it's all about the 1M CC; a LTF setup will determine the closure of the November 1M candle.

If price goes down first (low probably inbetween two dashed lines) then it's probably a free bull run.

If price however goes back to the highest high and afterwards falls below this structure (blue line) then it's probably a short.

Price could also pump and stay above the current highest high, then it's probably also a bull run.

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I think it's either going to 'spike'-SFP/MSB this with a fast HH (SFP) - LL or it's going to just randomly fall down without a MSB which would mean you get another higher TF HL around the blue box (as price will drop lower because of all this structure at the top).

At the moment this doesn't look anything like a big pump breakout. After these 4 highs so close to another you can't even speak of an important level to look out for. So a big vertical breakout is off the table I think.

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A MSB is only a MSB when you get a fast HH-LL. That's why, here at this moment, you would need another HH for a potential MSB.

If this happens, then likely it would MSB the higher TF trend (green lines) + close as an SFP on the Monthly (in regard to the March 2024 ATH level). Then you have a mega short. But a full HTF breakdown wouldn't make sense to me as price already closed above the November 2021 ATH on the 1M (see my Crypto Deviation Setup Theory on X (Short only)). Instead, I'd then like to see a 1W/1M Long Deviation Setup using the August 5 48-49k low (1W/1M TF because it also happened like this in November 2022 with the 17K deviation Nov 2022. Why this TF? because of the horizontality between creation level and hit of level).

If however price randomly drops down, so without 'breakdown PA' (SFP or MSB), then I think a HTF bull run is guaranteed because it would likely create a HL around the blue box and then get back above the March 2024 Monthly level and close above it aswell (where the March ATH already closed above the November 2021 ATH level).

註釋

See my similar x post (@3yyJasper) where I added a screenshot to make this text make more sense.

註釋

And this then is how a HTF bull run looks like? The PA from before the overnight pump was so close to another with all those highs that it could go either way IMO. But now, when you get the pump out of all that consolidation, and taking in account the HTF picture (I don't think 1M SFP is possible anymore when price gets that much away from the level), I think the right thing to do is just to drop the scepticism and buy in spot.