Navigating a Projected 2025-28 Bear Cycle & Accumulation Roadmap

Fellow Traders,
This post outlines a conceptual Bitcoin bear market projection (2025-2028) and a phased accumulation strategy, based on synthesized market cycle data. (Inspired by external analyses).
I. Projected Bear Market Timeline:
Q4 2025: Euphoria Top (Potential 100k-120k)
Q1 2026: Bear Trigger (SPX correction, BTC < 60k)
Q4 2026: Capitulation (Crash towards $30k, miner selling)
Q2 2027: Extreme Fear & Bottom (Recession, BTC plunge to 18k-25k)
Q4 2027: Accumulation Begins (e.g., MVRV < 0.5)
Q1 2028 onwards: Slow Recovery (Halving anticipation)
II. Phased Accumulation Strategy:
A systematic buying approach across distinct price zones, triggered by on-chain/macro signals:
Early Accumulation (22k - 25k): 20% Allocation.
Triggers like MVRV < 0.85, high VIX.
Core Accumulation (18.5k - 20k): 50% Allocation.
Triggers like Hash Ribbons "Recovery," low funding rates.
Aggressive Accumulation (16.5k - 17.5k): 20% Allocation.
Triggers like Fed cuts, NUPL < -0.75.
Black Swan Buy (14k - 15k): 10% Allocation.
For extreme, unexpected negative events.
(Timelines for these phases roughly span Q4 2026 - Q3 2027)
III. Key Supporting Concepts:
Price Floor Models: Models like MVRV Z-Score (16.8k), Thermo Cap (17.2k), and Realized Price (21k) align with accumulation zones.
Bottom Confirmation: Watch for signals like MVRV < 0.75, aSOPR < 0.85 (est. Q2-Q3 2027).
Diversified Capital: Strategy suggests a broader allocation including BTC Spot (70%), Gold (15%), Cash (10%), and BTC Call Options (5%) for risk management.
Conclusion:
This conceptual framework suggests a long-term, disciplined approach to navigating a potential BTC downturn and subsequent accumulation. Patience, phased entry based on data (not emotion), and risk awareness are paramount.
This is a conceptual model, not financial advice. DYOR.
This post outlines a conceptual Bitcoin bear market projection (2025-2028) and a phased accumulation strategy, based on synthesized market cycle data. (Inspired by external analyses).
I. Projected Bear Market Timeline:
Q4 2025: Euphoria Top (Potential 100k-120k)
Q1 2026: Bear Trigger (SPX correction, BTC < 60k)
Q4 2026: Capitulation (Crash towards $30k, miner selling)
Q2 2027: Extreme Fear & Bottom (Recession, BTC plunge to 18k-25k)
Q4 2027: Accumulation Begins (e.g., MVRV < 0.5)
Q1 2028 onwards: Slow Recovery (Halving anticipation)
II. Phased Accumulation Strategy:
A systematic buying approach across distinct price zones, triggered by on-chain/macro signals:
Early Accumulation (22k - 25k): 20% Allocation.
Triggers like MVRV < 0.85, high VIX.
Core Accumulation (18.5k - 20k): 50% Allocation.
Triggers like Hash Ribbons "Recovery," low funding rates.
Aggressive Accumulation (16.5k - 17.5k): 20% Allocation.
Triggers like Fed cuts, NUPL < -0.75.
Black Swan Buy (14k - 15k): 10% Allocation.
For extreme, unexpected negative events.
(Timelines for these phases roughly span Q4 2026 - Q3 2027)
III. Key Supporting Concepts:
Price Floor Models: Models like MVRV Z-Score (16.8k), Thermo Cap (17.2k), and Realized Price (21k) align with accumulation zones.
Bottom Confirmation: Watch for signals like MVRV < 0.75, aSOPR < 0.85 (est. Q2-Q3 2027).
Diversified Capital: Strategy suggests a broader allocation including BTC Spot (70%), Gold (15%), Cash (10%), and BTC Call Options (5%) for risk management.
Conclusion:
This conceptual framework suggests a long-term, disciplined approach to navigating a potential BTC downturn and subsequent accumulation. Patience, phased entry based on data (not emotion), and risk awareness are paramount.
This is a conceptual model, not financial advice. DYOR.
A Haque
Founder | MyTradingJournal
📊 Financial Market Analyst | Trader | Educator
🐦 Twitter: @MyTradingJnl6th
📺 YouTube: @MyTradingJournal6th
Founder | MyTradingJournal
📊 Financial Market Analyst | Trader | Educator
🐦 Twitter: @MyTradingJnl6th
📺 YouTube: @MyTradingJournal6th
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。
A Haque
Founder | MyTradingJournal
📊 Financial Market Analyst | Trader | Educator
🐦 Twitter: @MyTradingJnl6th
📺 YouTube: @MyTradingJournal6th
Founder | MyTradingJournal
📊 Financial Market Analyst | Trader | Educator
🐦 Twitter: @MyTradingJnl6th
📺 YouTube: @MyTradingJournal6th
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。