Navigating a Projected 2025-28 Bear Cycle & Accumulation Roadmap

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Fellow Traders,

This post outlines a conceptual Bitcoin bear market projection (2025-2028) and a phased accumulation strategy, based on synthesized market cycle data. (Inspired by external analyses).

I. Projected Bear Market Timeline:

Q4 2025: Euphoria Top (Potential 100k-120k)
Q1 2026: Bear Trigger (SPX correction, BTC < 60k)
Q4 2026: Capitulation (Crash towards $30k, miner selling)
Q2 2027: Extreme Fear & Bottom (Recession, BTC plunge to 18k-25k)
Q4 2027: Accumulation Begins (e.g., MVRV < 0.5)
Q1 2028 onwards: Slow Recovery (Halving anticipation)

II. Phased Accumulation Strategy:

A systematic buying approach across distinct price zones, triggered by on-chain/macro signals:

Early Accumulation (22k - 25k): 20% Allocation.
Triggers like MVRV < 0.85, high VIX.
Core Accumulation (18.5k - 20k): 50% Allocation.
Triggers like Hash Ribbons "Recovery," low funding rates.
Aggressive Accumulation (16.5k - 17.5k): 20% Allocation.
Triggers like Fed cuts, NUPL < -0.75.
Black Swan Buy (14k - 15k): 10% Allocation.
For extreme, unexpected negative events.
(Timelines for these phases roughly span Q4 2026 - Q3 2027)

III. Key Supporting Concepts:

Price Floor Models: Models like MVRV Z-Score (16.8k), Thermo Cap (17.2k), and Realized Price (21k) align with accumulation zones.
Bottom Confirmation: Watch for signals like MVRV < 0.75, aSOPR < 0.85 (est. Q2-Q3 2027).
Diversified Capital: Strategy suggests a broader allocation including BTC Spot (70%), Gold (15%), Cash (10%), and BTC Call Options (5%) for risk management.
Conclusion:

This conceptual framework suggests a long-term, disciplined approach to navigating a potential BTC downturn and subsequent accumulation. Patience, phased entry based on data (not emotion), and risk awareness are paramount.

This is a conceptual model, not financial advice. DYOR.

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