Comprehensive Bitcoin Analysis and Market Trend Prediction

🧠 Comprehensive Bitcoin Analysis in 4-Hour Timeframe
📅 Date: May 30, 2025
✍️ Analyst: Mahaam

Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture. As of May 29, 2025, it is trading around 105,543 USD, approximately 5.7% lower than its recent peak of 111,970 USD on May 22. The daily trading volume is around 32.47 billion USD, and Bitcoin's market capitalization has reached 2.16 trillion USD.

📊 Technical Analysis:

📈 Price Trend and Moving Averages:
The Bitcoin chart indicates that after a strong rally starting in late April 2025, the market is now undergoing a price correction. The 20-day moving average is currently around 108,017 USD, and the 50-day moving average is around 97,500 USD. The current price remains above both moving averages, indicating a sustained medium-term bullish trend, though the growing distance from the 20-day MA may reflect weakening upward momentum.

📉 RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is currently at 53, signaling an exit from the overbought zone. It has dropped from levels above 70 in early May, showing increased selling pressure. However, it remains in a neutral range, with no indication of entering the oversold zone (below 30).

📉 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD is currently declining and has crossed below the signal line, indicating a short-term sell signal. The MACD histogram is also turning negative, suggesting a decrease in upward momentum and rising short-term selling pressure.

⚖️ Long/Short Ratio:
Data from CoinGlass shows the BTCUSDT long/short ratio on Binance has reached its highest level since the beginning of the month. Currently, 6 out of 10 accounts hold long positions. This imbalance could lead to a long squeeze, forcing traders to close long positions and increasing selling pressure.

📊 Volume:
Trading volume has decreased in recent days, indicating reduced buyer interest at current price levels. In the past 24 hours, approximately 650 million USD in long positions across the crypto market have been liquidated, with nearly one-third of that related to Bitcoin.

📍 Key Resistance Levels:
• 109,300 USD (recent daily high)
• 111,970 USD (all-time high)

📍 Key Support Levels:
• 106,000 USD (Fib 23.6%)
• 103,460 USD (Fib 38.2%)
• 100,000 USD (key psychological level)

🧠 Fundamental Analysis:

🏦 Institutional Buying and Corporate Investment:
One of the most significant recent developments is the announcement from Trump Media and Technology Group about raising 2.5 billion USD to invest in Bitcoin. Approximately 50 institutional investors participated, allocating 1.5 billion USD for common stock purchases and 1 billion USD for convertible bonds. This move aims to create a Bitcoin reserve for the company and could signal increasing institutional adoption.

📅 Bitcoin 2025 Conference:
Held from May 27 to 29 in Las Vegas, the conference featured key figures such as Michael Saylor and U.S. Vice President JD Vance. Prominent analyst Miles Deutscher pointed out a pattern where Bitcoin's price tends to decline after each Bitcoin Conference. Based on historical data, the average post-conference drop is about 27%, which, if repeated, could push the price below 80,000 USD.

🔮 Price Forecasts by Leading Analysts:
📌 Adam Back (CEO, Blockstream): At least several hundred thousand USD in 2025, potentially up to 1 million USD if the U.S. implements a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
📌 Geoff Kendrick (Global Head of Digital Assets, Standard Chartered): 120,000 USD in H1 2025, 200,000 USD by year-end, citing stablecoins legitimizing the crypto market.
📌 Mike Novogratz (Founder, Galaxy Digital): Between 130,000 and 150,000 USD, driven by strong institutional inflows, a weakening dollar, and rising demand for digital assets.
📌 Cathie Wood (CEO, ARK Invest): 1.5 million USD by 2030, requiring a 58% CAGR over the next five years.
📌 Arthur Hayes (Founder, BitMEX): 250,000 USD by the end of 2025 if the Fed returns to quantitative easing.

🌐 Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Context:
Trade tensions and tariff uncertainties continue to influence investor sentiment. A U.S. appellate court recently reinstated trade tariffs, while the government is appealing the previous decision that overturned them. Additionally, the self-imposed deadline for trade agreements is approaching on July 9.

🧭 Potential Scenarios:

🚀 Bullish Scenario:
If Bitcoin breaks the 109,300 USD resistance and holds above it, there is a possibility of retesting the all-time high at 111,970 USD. A breakout beyond that could pave the way toward the 120,000 to 130,000 USD range.

🔹 Supporting Factors:
• Continued institutional and corporate investments in Bitcoin
• Return of expansionary monetary policies by the Fed
• Greater adoption and utility of stablecoins

📉 Bearish Scenario:
If selling pressure continues and price drops below the 106,000 USD support level, further declines toward 103,000 USD and 100,000 USD are possible. If the psychological support at 100,000 USD fails, the next target could be around 90,000 USD.

🔻 Driving Factors:
• Long squeeze due to high long/short ratio
• Historical pattern of post-conference price drops
• Increasing trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty

✅ Conclusion:

Bitcoin is at a critical decision point. Technical indicators suggest weakening bullish momentum and short-term correction risks. The long/short imbalance and historical patterns add to the possibility of a notable pullback.

Nevertheless, strong fundamentals like growing institutional and corporate adoption (especially the Trump Media announcement) support a positive mid-to-long-term outlook. Leading analysts’ forecasts remain largely bullish, with price targets between 130,000 and 250,000 USD by year-end 2025.

In summary, Bitcoin may face short-term selling pressure, but the mid- and long-term perspective remains optimistic. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels and adjust their strategies based on market reactions.

📚 Sources:

The Crypto Basic
CoinDesk
Cointelegraph
FX Empire
Bitcoin.com News
Reuters
CoinGlass