BTC Breakdown Confirmed Below 93.3K: Distribution or Correction?

After failing to reach the projected 96.5K supply zone, BTCUSDT topped at 94.9K with a high-volume rejection and has since broken decisively below 93.3K — a critical VWAP support zone. This move validates the bearish continuation scenario and shifts the strategic focus from pullback-reload to downside targets and flow-based invalidation.


Key Developments Since the Previous Report:

🔻 Top Confirmed at 94.9K on April 23 at 13:38 UTC
🔽 Delta at top: -266, aggressive selling
🔽 OI peaked and started to stall
❌ Failed to build continuation to 96.5K
🔻 “Support” at 93.3K broken overnight (new low: 92.238 USDT)

This eliminates the reload-long scenario and strengthens the short continuation thesis.


Current Market Structure:
BTC is now trading below VWAP and the previous high-volume breakout zone. The current structure resembles a distribution phase, not a simple pullback:

🔻 Price below VWAP daily/weekly
🔽 OI flat to slightly declining
❌ Buy delta faded post-top, sellers back in control


Tactical Outlook:
With confirmation below 93.3K, the next key zone of interest is:

🔹 91.800 USDT – Previous accumulation + POC zone

If price stabilizes there with renewed buy delta + OI uptick, we can reassess for recovery. But for now, momentum favors sellers.


Recommended Tactical Entry:

Short Setup (Continuation):

🔹 Sell limit at 93.100–93.300 (retest of broken support)
🔹 Stop Loss: 93.850 (above VWAP and breakout candle)
🔹 TP1: 91.800 (POC zone)
🔹 TP2: 90.200 (gap support below)
⚖️ R/R: 1:2.5 to 1:3

Entry Conditions:
Delta remains negative during retest
OI does not rise (no renewed long positioning)
Volume spike with no follow-through (inefficient move)

Invalidation:
If price reclaims 93.850 with increasing OI and buyer aggression, short thesis is invalidated.

Alternative: enter aggressively after bearish rejection candle on 5–15min timeframe.


Playbook:
Short bias active unless:
Price reclaims 93.8K with conviction (delta + OI surge)
Daily closes back above VWAP

Until then:
✅ Maintain shorts
❌ Avoid premature longs
⚡ Watch for volume spikes without delta = liquidity traps

Conclusion:
The failure at 94.9K combined with the clean break of 93.3K marks a transition from bullish continuation to controlled unwind. The market is now in distribution territory, and caution is warranted.

Watch 91.8K closely.

Author: Pôncio Pacífico
Ex-institutional trader, banned from CEXs.
"Volume doesn't lie. Traders do."

Follow for the next tactical flow shift.