bitcoin bullish and bearish

BTCUSDT.P

bullish
🔹 Technical analysis according to Elliott waves (time: 1 hour)

📌 The pattern shown on the chart shows a complex structure that includes a complex correction within the larger wave (B), and the following is clear:

🔸 Main waves:

Wave (1) up from the bottom has been confirmed.

It was followed by a corrective wave (2) that ended near the 0.786 Fibonacci level = 102,575.

Then the upward wave (3) started, and it seems that it has been completed or is about to be completed.


🔸 Current status:

The price is currently moving within a small corrective wave, likely wave (4).

Current major support is located at: 🔸 102,275.7 (very important level) 🔸 100,317.6 (in case the correction extends)


🔸 Critical resistance areas:

For the bullish scenario to be valid, the resistance must be broken:

106,759 (0.618 Fibonacci ratio)

108,948 (0.786 – peak of wave C)




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🔹 Important technical points:

🔸 The last correction (A)-(B)-(C) shows a clear triple structure, indicating that wave (2) has been completed.

🔸 The price is currently bouncing off the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci levels (104,402 - 104,923), which reinforces the possibility that wave (2) has actually ended, and that we are currently starting an upward wave (3).


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✅ Conclusion:

✅ As long as the price is above 102,275, the upward scenario through wave (3) remains valid.

⚠️ Breaking 100,317 indicates the failure of the bullish scenario and a structural shift in the waves.

🔻 Alternative (Bearish) Scenario – Short-Term:

If the price fails to maintain the current support at 102,275, we may not be in wave (4) but rather at the beginning of a new downward wave within a broader corrective scenario, as follows:

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🔸 Wave Interpretation:

🔹 Wave (B), which completed at the peak near 108,948, likely marked the end of an upward correction.

🔹 The current downward wave from that peak could be:

Either wave 1 of C within a larger correction,

or the beginning of wave (C) within a bearish (A)-(B)-(C) pattern.

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🔻 Potential Downside Targets in This Scenario:

1. Breaking 102,275 = Confirmation of the beginning of a new downward wave.

2. First Target:
🔸 101,484 (1.618 Fibonacci Extension – Wave 1 Expected)

3. Second and Stronger Target:
🔸 100,317 = Previous Major Support, Representing an Important Structural Test Area.

4. Third and Most Extreme Target in This Scenario:
🔸 98,800 – 99,260 = Possible Wave C Extension (Corresponds to a Larger Downside Scenario).

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⚠️ Failure Signal:

Remaining below 105,926 (Previous Sub-Wave Resistance) maintains selling pressure.

Any weak bounce and lack of a clear wave 5 upwards = an additional sign of bearish dominance.

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🔻 Conclusion:

✳️ The bearish scenario assumes that the peak at 108,948 was the end of corrective wave (B), and that we are now in a downward wave C targeting areas between 101,400 and 99,200, and possibly lower.

✳️ A break of 102,275 would be key to activating this scenario.