Always false breakout

2023年1月29日

Although the current price action show the possibilities of breakout from the resistance line, the reality is that this kind of breakout always ends up in false breakout and a huge red candle.

2023年1月29日

註釋

Given that the weekly candle of this week will be closed in next few hours, the real moves will begin after the close of this week's candle.
my view is that there is still some chance for bitcoin to be above like 25000+ in the next weekly candles and then plunge immediately such that the close price of the next week's candle would be below 24000 (i.e. next weekly candle could be a red candle with a long bearish pin bar)

2023年1月29日

註釋

If you use the ticker of BTCUSD data from bitstamp (showing the longest price history), you could even find that BTC have broken the long term support line.
I drew the support line both in 2 different ways by regarding the closing price and the week low, $5000 & $3900 respectively on the weekly candle of 09/03/2020 as support. I can therefore obtain the widest range of long term support line. Both versions of support line are obviously broken. If we combine this chart with the current bullish price movement of bitcoin, we could treat the recent bounce as a retest and expect the price to continue falling after the retest. The conclusion is that the long term trend of bitcoin is still bearish.

2023年1月29日

註釋

I have analyzed the price movement of bitcoin using the concept of elliot wave 4 years ago.
I dont sure if we are still in wave 5, but if bitcoin continues its bullish impulse in next few weeks (i.e. consecutive green weekly candles), the chance of us being in wave 5 would certainly increase.