BTC to Drop as low as 7400-7850 before bounce to 11680

On the weekly log chart... looking set to possibly test 7850 support level, if that fails we have the 52 week EMA and bottom of up trend channel just below that at around 7400. Should find good support here if we go this low. We would then be looking for a bounce up to test the 23.6% Fib levels resistance. If we can break through both it and the 13 week EMA (quarter yearly) with supporting volume we will test the 38.2% Fib/top of up trend channel resistance (green arrows). If we don't bounce hard enough off the support/bottom of uptrend channel then we may retrace again from the 23.6% back to the bottom of the down trend channel. This would be not so good, as it would potentially invalidate our uptrend channel and make it more likely to fall through the bottom of the channel in which case we would need to reassess our situation.

Not trading for now, however if our green arrow scenario plays out and we can close with volume above the 23.6% fib I will buy on the confirmed breakout (at around $9950) and go long to $11600.