BTC-USD Bottom is likely in - returning to 13k+ levels?
I closed my recent short position and am now long the market. We will probably consolidate here and who knows, another drop may be in the cards. However, I think there is a strong historical precedent in place for this to be a higher low just halfway down the wick of that weekly candle. This lines up with a lot of Fibonacci retracement zones and congestion zones that I've been mapping out this month. I've cleaned up the chart here for clarity and will be updating it as we go.
A lot of people are shouting that this will continue all the way to sub-7000 levels, but I just don't see that happening. If it did happen, then we'd have a crash on our hands and people would be losing a lot of confidence in crypto. It would take the better part of a year to recover from that. I think with the state of the global economy as it is, and with all the FUD and FOMO being spread in cycles through mainstream media and Old Guard financial magnates, it is far more in their favor to hold this price. The vast amount of BTC owned by individuals hasn't actually moved much since the correction began, which means smart money is HODLing, and all these recent vaporware pumps such as Ripple and Tron have served as another mechanism for the big players to shake assets from small fish and early adopters.
I think we're going to consolidate around this new low for a time as confidence returns to the market and the mainstream media FOMO cycle begins.
The vertical line on this chart is special to me and a few other viewers. Are you deep in the "woo?"
Clif High's web bots project February 15th to be the last time we may see the BTC price 13,888 and from there into March, we'll quickly climb into the 100k range before a retracement of nearly 40%.
Also shoutout to my buddy Z, AlanMasters, Jsnip and Traderjoe for insightful T.A.
I'll do more technical analysis as the day unfolds.
A lot of people are shouting that this will continue all the way to sub-7000 levels, but I just don't see that happening. If it did happen, then we'd have a crash on our hands and people would be losing a lot of confidence in crypto. It would take the better part of a year to recover from that. I think with the state of the global economy as it is, and with all the FUD and FOMO being spread in cycles through mainstream media and Old Guard financial magnates, it is far more in their favor to hold this price. The vast amount of BTC owned by individuals hasn't actually moved much since the correction began, which means smart money is HODLing, and all these recent vaporware pumps such as Ripple and Tron have served as another mechanism for the big players to shake assets from small fish and early adopters.
I think we're going to consolidate around this new low for a time as confidence returns to the market and the mainstream media FOMO cycle begins.
The vertical line on this chart is special to me and a few other viewers. Are you deep in the "woo?"
Clif High's web bots project February 15th to be the last time we may see the BTC price 13,888 and from there into March, we'll quickly climb into the 100k range before a retracement of nearly 40%.
Also shoutout to my buddy Z, AlanMasters, Jsnip and Traderjoe for insightful T.A.
I'll do more technical analysis as the day unfolds.
評論:
I accidentally left off the vertical line that I mentioned before, it's just a temporal marker. I also found this cool price projection tool. This is what I'm expecting.
評論:
If things couldn't be more woowoo, I noticed that 13888 perfectly touches the top of the Senkou Span A on February 15th. We can still go as low as the 7000s before then, so watch out. That said, there's a lot of buying pressure between 8 - 10,000.
評論:
As of this writing, BTC stands around 11k. If I was on an exchange that allowed for shorting, I'd be doing it right now. These swings are delicious.
評論:
Bears are coming. Hidden bearish divergence on BTC-USD
評論:
bpcdn.co/images/2016...arish-divergence.jpg
It's on the 15 minute chart so it's not the strongest indication, but I find these divergence patterns work out quite often.
That said, I see something of a falling wedge on the 21 and 343 min time frames. The smaller time frame has just left overbought territory, but the larger time frame is oversold. Therefore on a longer time frame we could see a relatively powerful bounce.
stockcharts.com...school/doku.php?id=chart_s...
Look how solid the top edge of that Ichimoku cloud is. That's usually a good sign for an edge-to-edge cloud break.
It's on the 15 minute chart so it's not the strongest indication, but I find these divergence patterns work out quite often.
That said, I see something of a falling wedge on the 21 and 343 min time frames. The smaller time frame has just left overbought territory, but the larger time frame is oversold. Therefore on a longer time frame we could see a relatively powerful bounce.
stockcharts.com...school/doku.php?id=chart_s...
Look how solid the top edge of that Ichimoku cloud is. That's usually a good sign for an edge-to-edge cloud break.
評論:
My thoughts are that it's more likely to bounce off the resistance of about 10400 - 1485 range (congestion zone) before another move upward, if we don't see another dump first.
評論:
A price floor is being established, this is very healthy considering the parabolic move prior to this, as we had healthier price floors/ retracement up until that point. It looks like the 200-day MA will offer some confluence here, as well as the enormous bearish volume at the end of a 3rd lower low, and highly oversold RSI. It will likely begin to bounce hard and will remain in a volatile range for some time, likely revisiting the 8000s or even 7000s before all is said and done.