US INAUGURATION & BTC

1月20日

As the second Trump era begins, this is how Bitcoin looks:

- BTC new ATH in the run up to inauguration and highest ever weekly close. I believe this was in anticipation for Trumps acceptance speech to mention Bitcoin and or the strategic reserve. That did not happen and so we've seen a selloff wick down to Midpoint with price settling at 0.75 in the range.
Typically, wicks get filled and so I would like to see price steadily reach the midpoint and then begin to show some strength before looking to go LONG. That all changes if we see a crypto specific executive order signed in the coming hours/days we should then see a move back to the highs.

- 4H 200 EMA is always an important level for the Bullrun, the vast majority of altcoins are under the 4H 200 EMA thanks to liquidity being drawn out into BTC and Solana memecoin craze.

- Bitcoin is still leading the greater market but I do expect rotation into strong US based altcoins within the next few weeks going into the later part of Q1. Some key alts that fit that category are SOL, SUI, LINK, ONDO, XRP, ENS, and many more.

It's important to remember this is a marathon not a sprint and I fully expect progress to be made but it may not be linear, until we have broken out of the range in the chart and move into a clear trend environment BTC should be treated as such by trading instead of buying and holding.

1月23日

註釋

Looks like we're on track to sweep the midpoint as predicted. A lot of very positive news in the last few days and no reflection of that in price points towards an exhausted rally.
The midpoint would would therefor be a better place to launch from but an evaluation of that can be made if price reaches that zone.

1月23日

註釋

Senator Cynthia Lummis officially named chair of Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets. This is a huge step towards the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" and Bitcoins price reflects the news on the LTF.

This is another instance of fundamental analysis being more important than Technical analysis currently with everything going on in America.

7 天前

註釋

Looks like buyers front-ran the midpoint bullish orderblock zone with consistent higher lows going up into resistance, overall very bullish price action for BTC.

Alts are not getting the same love Bitcoin is just yet but the feeling is that once BTC gets out of this range and has a prolonged bullish move then alts will catch a bid and get going again. This aligns with the typical seasonality of a rough start to January, strong Feb-April.

5 天前

註釋

And there is the Midpoint retest, the macro is still bullish and this may provide a good entry. However, there are a few points to consider and for that reason I'm not sure if there will be a rush/ V-shape recovery just yet.

FOMC is this week and so many will/have de-risk. AI concerns with the release of a Chinese competitor to OpenAI, Meta and others in the US. NVIDIA has taken a hit in the pre-market as a result and therefor crypto will be subject to the stock markets performance for the week at least IMO.