看空

BTC 牛在哪? Where's the bull

上篇的結尾
Last Post

“
接下來原則上我們剩下
1.我之前偏向的紫色（紅色）
2.綠色 (現在的位置)
3.藍色

有鑑于綠色目前看起來有機會
我也另外把這個劇本的目標放上來
時間點沒錯剛好就是11月大選前

這也是為什麼我會在今天買進的原因之一

當然我也會關注是否會在下探
走到紫色及藍色的劇本內

看下圖你就會懂我的顧忌

另外主圖這邊我提供一個有可能出現的走勢
當然這個只是一個臆測
但是依照時間推算很有可能發生

Next, we are left with:
1 The purple (red) path I previously favored
2 The green path (current position)
3 The blue path
Given that the green path currently seems promising, I have also included the target for this scenario. The timing is just right before the November election, which is one of the reasons I bought in today.
Of course, I will also be watching for potential downturns into the purple and blue scenarios.
Looking at the chart below, you will understand my concerns:

Additionally, in the main chart here, I am providing a possible trajectory that might occur. Of course, this is just speculation, but based on the time calculation, it is very likely to happen.

”

很幸運我在25號出清了
我手上所有的Crypto

先談談為什麼我會出清
第一我認為時間未滿足
第二我判斷會有第二隻腳
第三外部原因美股跟匯率
另外我觀察到很多others 原則上都是上漲但是量沒有出來
甚至都是背離的情況

所以我判斷這次跌幅不算滿足
好一點的情況是做第二隻腳
但是這隻腳的深淺要再做觀察
54000～55000 是一個高腳區間
但我比較喜歡跌破前低 49000 在做收回
或許可以去嘗試摸通道底部這樣對於莊家來說
籌碼也乾淨

當然紫色跟藍色規劃我沒有忘記

這波的下跌如果我們取6/7～7/5來計算那大約是在 1.13～1.27之間
如果8/25是高點那是否就非常有可能會打到紫色預測點（1.13）
反正這邊是一個可見的機會點列入觀察

Lucky, I cleaned all of my crypto holdings on the 25th.
Let me explain why I decided to liquidate:
1 I believe the timing wasn't right.
2 I anticipated there would be a second leg down.
3 External factors such as the U.S. stock market and exchange rates.
Additionally, I noticed that many other assets have generally been rising, but the volume hasn't picked up, and there are even cases of divergence.
So I concluded that the current decline hasn't fully satisfied its potential. A better scenario would be a second leg down, but the depth of this leg still needs to be observed. The range of 54,000 to 55,000 is a high area, but I would prefer a drop below the previous low of 49,000 for a rebound. It might be worth trying to touch the bottom of the channel, which would clean up the position for the market makers.
Of course, I haven't forgotten about the purple and blue scenarios.
If we calculate the recent drop from June 7 to July 5, it falls between 1.13 and 1.27. If August 25 was the high, it is very likely that it will reach the purple forecast point (1.13). This is a visible opportunity and worth observing.

接下來我的簡易計畫有兩個部分
一個是右側一個左側供參考

右側就是突破Buy-in (A) 即下單買進
止損 SL 1 (A) 及 SL ALL （A）
這個原則上偏向短單
除非量能有出來
但是注意到紫色框的部分就要考慮止盈或拉高止損到有盈利的位置

左側當然就是預計會續跌到紫色區域
這個我會先掛單但是一樣看情況更動

其他掛單比較偏短線操作的我就不細說但是原則上就是上面提到第二隻腳的位置
以及通道邊緣

2 simple plan for now

1 The right side, it involves breaking through the Buy-in (A) and placing a buy order. The stop-loss is set at SL 1 (A) and SL ALL (A). This approach is generally for short trades unless the volume increases. However, if you notice the purple box area, you should consider taking profits or raising the stop-loss to a profitable position.

2 The left side I anticipate further declines to the purple area. I will place limit orders for this but will adjust based on the situation.
I won’t go into detail about other limit orders that are more short-term, but generally, they relate to the second leg position mentioned above and the channel edges.