BTC Medium Term and Local Work for 2025 18 05 2025

5月17日

Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Everything is shown extremely accurately, according to technical analysis, logic based on cyclical repetition, and liquidity consolidation zones as a result of price and trading movements. This trading idea, with precise reversal zones and targets, will last you for 31 weeks. That is, for 7 months.



The previous trading idea BTC/USD Triangle. Medium-term and local work, published on 7 06 2024, it lasted me almost 1 year. It has 63 local work updates (I don't spam with new trading ideas on principle). So, nothing will get lost, you can follow everything, read, possibly use it as training material on a live chart, as a whole explanation of local work, what is really happening on the market, profit/loss potential, always before the price movement, and not after the fact. I show what is, that is, a chart and potential work from the position of a trader, not a crypto marketer.

🟣Local and medium urgent now

1️⃣💸 The bullish triangle itself (which is not there yet, I have depicted it on the chart for you) acts as a stop and consolidation zone (zone “psychology 100”, reset in trend No. 1). This is the easiest to manipulate and the most probable scenario. This will just be the summer consolidation. Instead of it, there may be:

2️⃣💸 Rising wedge, but more in shape like a triangle (essentially a wedge, there is a meaning of a triangle, but it was formed on aggressive pump news), with a large short liquidity takeout, and not very good logic of the TA movement after that... But, this is a bullish scenario, although quite aggressive.

3️⃣ Working out the bearish targets of the triangle (non-corrective price movement within its canvas). Stopping the decline in the designated zone and reversal upward (continuation of the trend). I emphasize the importance of not fixing the price below the zone of targets of the local corrective decline, which will not break the trend.

4️⃣💸 Double top (or triple). Double top as in 2021 in the distribution zone. This is the least likely scenario, but the most negative, as it breaks the trend. But, this is the least likely scenario, primarily because of the altcoins.

Altcoins in 2021 and now.

4️⃣In 2021, when Bitcoin formed a double top, they (altcoins) were in “space”, that is, in their distribution zones (+500-1000% of the average price of the set).

🔽Now everything is the other way around, they are in capitulation zones (most of them) or in their long-term accumulation channels:

Liquid -90-93%
Medium liquid -93-96%
Low liquid -96-98% or some are already scams or on the verge of it...

Some altcoins have pumped up earlier. That is, they left their long-term accumulation zones earlier. For example: SUN, XRP, DOGE, PEPE, SOL and so on... But there are very few of them, as distributing (raising the price, holding it and selling, inspiring to buy expensive when everything is cheap) in a bearish altcoin trend is very irrational, and you need a lot of money to go against the general market trend.

Main trend (most of it, chart since Binance Exchange foundation) for clarity on a large time frame of this local zone for work.
BTC Primary trend. Secondary — expanding triangle.

5月22日

註釋

22 05 2025 price in breakout zone 110 220.14

5月25日

註釋

25 05 2025 #rollback, retest of the breakout zone, after entering the resistance zone. The local trend is strong. Remember that this zone is what decides how Bitcoin will "dance" in the summer:

1) consolidation in a conditional sideways (forming a triangle)
2) or entry into the main asset distribution zone, or slightly lower to begin with, forming part of the ascending wedge.

Also in the first and second cases, they can collect stop loss with squeezes, and make many liquidations in both directions, especially long. This is a common occurrence in such "doubt" zones.

For those who don't understand what we are talking about. The first and second scenarios with long-term bullish, just different kinds of consolidation in the trend.

6月20日

註釋

21 06 2025 essentially an unnecessary local announcement, as everything is EXTREMELY ACCURATELY shown earlier, but on such a beautiful date (21 06 today and tomorrow 22 06) and the price is in the local reversal zone, - I decided to do it, to emphasize.

The medium-term direction of the trend depends on this local zone. We are in the second wave of the big summer consolidation triangle. Locally, in the resistance zone "psychology 100", a symmetrical triangle has also formed. Reversal zones and percentages to them, similarly shown earlier to "ladies and gentlemen", but not to their children.

What do you think, in the near future, news will be invented, and imitations of events (99.9% on the Internet, before the trigger) "somewhere there", which "influenced" the cryptocurrency market:

1) positive news (to hold this zone and exit it, breakthrough of the local triangle upwards). Local movement collects protective short stops and all short positions of gambling addicts.

2) partially negative to collect long stops, and then positive "you got it wrong" or malicious Iranian "susuly missed".

3) or negative news:
a) a decline to the dynamic support of the large triangle, and the formation of an uncertainty zone (collection of liquidity, due to the division of opinions/actions by 50/50, then collection of liquidity due to the removal of stop-loss and liquidations of gambling addicts on futures.

b) or full implementation of the bearish goals of the triangle, and already news-imitation, which absolutely does not concern the crypto market, but the price for obvious reasons “reacts” (a campaign for liquidity). They joked, "you misunderstood us", but your money is already with us... Oh well, next time don't believe “us” and the fiction-news under the chart against you...

Markets change, ticker names are similar, but the behavior of the masses — no!

6月22日

註釋

22 06 2025 local triangle (2 wave of the big one) is currently being broken down by a candle. Everything is described and shown earlier, the work tactics are similar.

6月25日

註釋

25 06 2025 Very local: "Market noise". Long stops were collected under the triangle, and the price is moving (3rd wave of the triangle-consolidation) in the canvas of the local triangle to its resistance, to the next zone of local accumulation of liquidity, in this case short stops and liquidations.