15/07/24 Weekly outlook

7月15日Last weeks high: $61,431.5
Last weeks low: $54,288.74
Midpoint: $57,860.12

Last week BTC had a strong rally from the beginning of the week by printing the low in the first hour, and then closing at the weekly high at the very last hours on Sunday, a +13% climb over the 7 days.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) results came in very positive with a better than forecast result.

CPI (YoY):
FORECAST: 3.1%
ACTUAL: 3.0%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) results came in higher than forecast.

PPI (MoM):
FORECAST: 0.1%
ACTUAL:0.2%

Despite a positive CPI and negative PPI the chart reacted in an opposite direction to how we would expect. Eventually after Friday's PPI results the MIDPOINT of the range got flipped and has been rallying ever since.

Usually a weekend pump is not something to be trusted alone, the lower volume can often paint a false picture and because of this the Monday close is very important. Should Mondays close be above the last weeks high I think this could be a catalyst for flipping the Bearish trend back to Bullish.

Another indicator of a trend change is the 4H 200 EMA which has now been broken and awaits confirmation of acceptance above, again this leads into the Mondays close being key.

Close above $61,500 = BULLISH
Bounce and reclaim of both 1D & 4H 200EMAs, set up nicely for HTF continuation of Bullrun.

Close below $61,500 = BEARISH
A swing fail of last weeks high could also imply a rejection off 4H 200EMA and continuation of the chop/ LTF downtrend.

7月16日

評論

Confirmation of a close above last weeks high. For me this is a signal of strength and a potential trend shift back to bullish on LTF.

I expect to see a retest of the weekly high at some point as a final launching pad back towards '21 ATH of $69,000.

$61,500 still a key level