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🔥 Bitcoin Worst Case Scenario: Despair Ahead

Be aware that, at this point in time, I do not think that BTC will follow this path. The only way how I can see this become reality is if we experience a complete stock market meltdown like we saw in 2001 and 2008. Nevertheless, I think this analysis adds valuable information to the discussion.

In my most recent BTC analyses I've been quite bearish in the short- and mid-term. In today's analysis I want to explore one of the most bearish scenario's I can imagine.

We can draw a line from the 2018 bear market low to the COVID-19 dump early in 2020. This trend line, dotted purple, would function as the "mean". The whole of 2021's bull-market could be described as a massive mania phase. 2022 is the blow off phase following the mania phase. I'm aware that the "Return to normal" peak on the left chart is lower than the "new paradigm", which is not true for BTC, since we had a new ATH in November. However, I think the overall idea of a market-cycle is more important than this detail.

If the price were to follow the pattern, we have much more pain ahead. BTC will most likely bottom between 6k and 10k.

Like previously mentioned, I do not think that we will go that low. However, I find it important to mentally prepare for a scenario like this. My most likely scenario at this point in time is that we follow the 2018 bear market fractal, until proven otherwise. See below.