教育

Could Bitcoin Crash 60%—But Only 20% of Traders Lose?

Analyzing the current BTC/USDT chart, we see that Bitcoin is hanging just above a critical support zone—what many traders recognize as “the most important support level” from a volume perspective on Binance. The chart illustrates a potential 60.37% drop, which would pull BTC down nearly $49,000, back toward the high-volume range near $30K.

This sounds catastrophic, right? But here’s the twist...

🔍 Why Only 20% of Traders Might Actually Lose

According to Binance's volume profile data:

The majority of buying activity and position accumulation happened below $35,000.

Most long-term holders and smart money entered during the 2022-2023 accumulation range.

The Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) shows significant support below the current price, with minimal trading volume at higher levels.

💡 That means only a minority (approx. 20%) of traders bought BTC during its late-stage bull run above $70K. These are the traders most at risk if a drop occurs.

In contrast, the majority are still sitting in profit—or near break-even—even if Bitcoin retraces back to its base.

📊 So while the price could drop 60%, 80% of holders might remain safe, having entered at lower levels.

🧠 What This Means for You:

If you're a late bull, it’s time to assess risk.

If you're a smart accumulator, the pullback could offer another golden entry.

If you're a bear, this chart supports your thesis—but don't forget the whales are watching this zone closely.

Stay sharp. Stay informed.

註釋

the main point of this analysis is the volume not the drop!