Bitcoin 2022-2026 Cycle Idea

2022年11月17日

I am 50% deployed here in $BTC...will gobble up anything below $14k and trade any reclaim above $19k area. Two years of sideways and we enter the real bull shortly after the next #Bitcoin halving (Apr 2024ish). cycle / time-wise, we are ready. A man can but dream of laser eyes and bitcoin maximalism. the pain has gone on long enough I say!

There will be no risk management for this "trade", this investment idea is either right or I eat ... insert expletive.

2023年1月16日

交易進行

Broke out a few weeks earlier than expected...last time this happened to BTC it rallied harder than altcoins, and did not pull back. IF this week goes sideways, expect continuation. The $50k target is still in play. Enough time and movement to bring retail in before a significant drawdown later this year for reaccumulation.

2023年2月24日

交易進行

Not a lot has changed on the high time frames, however, macro conditions and equities performance has been a drag on crypto. Bitcoin has held on to its gains quite well, given that it broke out aggressively without much accumulation time its reasonable to expect some chop.

I believe this trade idea remains valid assuming market structure holds above 19k, still hopeful of a push above 30k at some point this year before a significant pullback.

2023年3月15日

交易進行

Retested the 19k-20k area and bounced in quite a convincing way. The troubles within the banking sector may be acting as a bullish narrative for BTC given that it was originally created to act as a hedge against this type of environment...if more tradfi institutions fail, fed intervention becomes more and more likely.

For now, the weekly structure holds, time will tell if Bitcoin can live up to its intended purpose.

2023年4月20日

註釋

Makes sense to start getting a little cautious in this first area of interest, potentially taking some profits. Weekly closes above the 30k level maintain the bullish trend, rejections from this area would be a reason for concern.

2023年5月12日

交易進行

The temptation here is to panic after rejection at the 30k level. I see 27k as the do-or-die level on the lower (daily) timeframe. Any ventures into 21k or below are prime opportunities for re-accumulation into the halving.

2023年12月8日

交易進行

We're edging closer to the 50k target having consolidated for a lengthy period of time. I still hold the idea that a pullback into the halving is likely after that, however, given the large consolidation area a dip below 30k is likely to be very brief in my current view.