♻️ Wyckoff, again, again and AGAIN ⁉️ - #LDTP 8.2

已更新

Let's do the point !

I will go straight to the point : I don't like this Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern at all ! Let me explain and I will be brief : Volume are constant so ... we expect a spring most of the time. Take a look at the spring area and ... it's terrible.

To remind, we are just on the primary support of the weekly upward channel which is the yellow line between the two grey support areas, we are just over the support of the bullish trend which is the grey area of $33,000 - $28,200 and the last barrier before the bear side of the strenth. I believe in Wyckoff BUT I don't believe in the psychology of this market (for the moment) and when I see the spring area just under the support area, ... I don't believe it can hold the flush or in other way : Could institutionnals absorb all the selling exhaust ? Believe me, if it happen, this will be the biggest volume that we ever seen on BTC for sure.
So multiples options to don't see that happen :

Another cycle inside the range with falling volumes to avoid this possibility of spring
Too strong support of weekly channel which mean we can't go retest the support area of Wyckoff and so avoid the spring and precipitate the bull breakout
Break the support area of Wyckoff and see directly a strong pressure of the grey support area to create a STB and possibly a bull breakout or falling volumes (like June 2021)
Do a short spring which mean reach only the top of the spring area. It could avoid the flush by not breaking the support area.

I hope for everyone that, if we have a spring, you have your stomach well attached because it's going to be sporty (and maybe sweaty). Either way, it's the goal of this pattern to play with psychology of the market, so what's best to put it on the key level of the market ?!

In the case Wyckoff fail, it will be a new perspective of the market, a perspective where we will have to project to the bear side.

Don't forget : "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"

Like, follow or comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue !
I will update this idea with evolution of the pattern.

註釋

UPDATE POSTED THE 21TH OF MARCH IN COMMENTS
Like always patience is the key, here we are in the middle of the range, building something like a symetrical triangle in it. So there is no dynamic until we didn't break or the last top or the last bottom (Dow law). In term of pattern I would say that we will be part for another stage on the support (ST/STB/SPRING). And here I want to insist on patience because even if we break the triangle to the top that don't mean that we leave the pattern. If you look the two pattern I draw on the right of the picture, most of the time, a missed stage is the opportunity to see a new level of resistance/support (missed retest of support for the highest could bring to new AR, missed retest of resistance for the lowest could bring to STB). So in the case we go break the triangle to the top the two areas to be careful of are the two circles I draw. First is of course the retest of the resistance area but more important, if we are in the construction of a new AR, the yellow line which is a the primary daily resistance which match perfectly to the construction of a channel too (bottoms with blue line) and that why I believe, if we have a new AR, it will happen around here. To finish, volumes are always constant, so for me there is no reason to leave the pattern without another stage on support for the moment so we are always waiting one of the multiples options I wrote in the initial idea. I don't have a cristal ball, it stay my humble analysis based on my knowledges.

註釋

UPDATE AFTER LDTP #12
Nice execution of the plan presented in comment. Like expected we stay in the pattern as volumes are staying constants. The scenarios presented higher in the initial idea to avoid the spring are always of actuality but let's do an update :

Another cycle inside the range with falling volumes to avoid this possibility of spring 🔽
This first one can be forgot if volumes don't fall before the weekly support. Personnaly I don't think it will fall, so the next scenario will probably the first to be tested.

"Too strong support of weekly channel which mean we can't go retest the support area of Wyckoff and so avoid the spring and precipitate the bull breakout" 🔽
Well it's probably the only one which can work but only a strong buying pressure and buying volumes can make it succeed, so wait these signals on the weekly primary support (support of daily channel at the same place).

Break the support area of Wyckoff and see directly a strong pressure of the grey support area to create a STB and possibly a bull breakout or falling volumes 🔽
Well, it's not impossible, but ... not confident in it. Probably a lot of stop loss under the support line will create a flush, some panic and hurry the spring to happen in this case I think.

Do a short spring which mean reach only the top of the spring area. It could avoid the flush by not breaking the support area 🔽
It's not avoiding the spring but it limit the deepness, it's a possibility but when I look the chart, with hindsight from when I wrote this idea, I think spring can go to the bottom of the spring area ($25,000) and institutionnals can hold it. It would be a flush, probably from the support line (around 30% move), but in term of valorisation, or we are all totally wrong and I don't think so, or it would be so much underated at this level that institutionnals, whales and companies will just accumulate all on it. The most difficult would probably be to reintegrate the range. Macroeconomicaly there is as many pros for institutionnals as cons for retailers (on their point of view, because of course there is a lot of pros imo) that could create this big rotation. Also the actual dynamic (acceleration creating a exponential trend arc on this last cycle) is typical, for the moment, of what we have before a spring, so in term of probability if we reach the support I think we will have one.

In all case, the first obstacle is the weekly support, until we are not here we can't gauge the strength of the opposite side (buyers), I think we can see now a little consolidation / lateralization here because of a leak of volume at this level in the range. I developped it in the LDTP #12 if it's interesting you.

註釋

UPDATE AFTER LDTP #13
Lower timeframe dynamic confirm the linear decrease. We reject the daily consolidations on key levels with pattern in this way like show this Wyckoff Redistribution pattern.

We are typically in a dynamic of spring, volume staying constant, smell spring, smell flush, smell volatility. Be careful on your choices !
The reaction on supports will be crucial.

註釋

UPDATE AFTER #LDTP14
We are definitly in the last phase for me (spring), dynamic continue to be straight, without consolidation, no epidermic reaction on support but breakout, starting to liquidate. I don't believe in the optic we will do another cycle (STB) before to spring, so that why I think we will reach the spring area. Flush ? Yes I think, best way to liquidate the highest amount of people for big hands. Retailers are capitulating, Fear and Greed is to his lowest. We are exactly where the Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern is supposed to bring us.

註釋

UPDATE AFTER LDTP #14.1
First attempt inside the spring area, unpeg of the usdt bring it to the bottom of the area on usd (but can't say if it's relevant or not for the moment). It's seems to be an epidermic reaction of entry inside the area, so we should see a retest to go deeper soon. An encouraging signal is that we see heavy volume inside the area, which show the interest of this price.