RLinda ! BTCUSD-> Market shows strength. What's next?

2022年11月5日

Since October 13, after testing the local low of 18200, the price moves into a bull market phase and the cryptocurrency market flagship makes its performance surprising, as well as indicators relative to fiat assets, stocks, indices and in terms of the global economic component.
On November 5, Bitcoin showed a sharp bullish trend, following a bullish breakout of the resistance of the descending triangle. The technical outlook signals more upside potential.


(Chart 1: the ratio between the leading DAX, sp500, BTC assets and a measure of total crypto market capitalization over the past 24 hours)

The flagship coin benefited from recent economic data in the United States, while the dollar, on the other hand, suffered. The U.S. dollar index lost 2% on the day for the first time in several years, pushing the asset of interest so hard.

• DXY falls 2% on November 4 amid a rebound in risky assets
  
• SP500 rises 1.87% on November 4
  
• BTCUSD is growing up to 4.79% on November 4
  
• TOTAL rises 5.15% on November 4
  

(Chart 2: Demonstration of bitcoin's confidence against the euro and pound on daily charts)

Bitcoin more stable than major fiat currencies
For the first time since October 2016, bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility almost equaled that of the British pound and euro."

In early November, BTC is feeling increased volatility due to events taking place in the U.S. First, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points, followed by a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report.

Bitcoin was able to hold important levels amid the rate hike, and after the release of the positive U.S. jobs report, bitcoin is beginning to strengthen. At the time of writing, we see the price in the $23,000-$25,000 range

The U.S. added 261,000 jobs in October, and the unemployment rate remained at a record low of 3.7%, which was much better than predicted given the continued slowdown in job creation.
While this was happening, average hourly earnings also trended upward, indicating sustained inflationary pressures in the labor market. This shows that the labor market is improving.

Nevertheless, it is clear that the Republican leadership is hoping for a recession, as evidenced by their comments. Biden understands how hard it is for American families because of inflation, which is the heaviest economic burden.


(Chart 3: Weekly Bitcoin Chart and Price Reaction to Key Level)

The U.S. Treasury Department sought public comment from the Bitcoin Policy Institute, which examines the policy and societal implications of bitcoin and emerging money networks, as well as the security implications of digital assets.

Key points of the report:

• -Bitcoin provides independence for people fleeing an authoritarian regime (cited with the Tor network, an open-source privacy network that allows anonymous browsing)
  
• -Flagship, promotes autonomy, cooperation and freedom, which is consistent with national ideals.
  
• -Bitcoin has been touted as a people-friendly asset that allows easy transactions, trading and storage with a mandatory Internet connection.
  
• -Transactions are open, do not require authorization and cannot be revoked, frozen or confiscated.
  
• -Cryptocurrency differs from other cryptocurrencies in its complete decentralization, absence of a leadership or founding group, and optimization in terms of resisting censorship.
  
• -The report acknowledges the risks, citing the rise in hacking and theft revenues, the increase in the scale and severity of ransomware transactions
  
• -The report also rejects claims that bitcoin is being used by countries such as Russia as a tool to circumvent U.S. sanctions amid the war between Russia and Ukraine, as confirmed by the lack of any evidence.
  
• -The importance of bitcoin for technology development, and gave suggestions to the Treasury, calling them strategic principles aimed at reducing risks.
  

(Chart 4: 4 hour bitcoin chart and key indicators)

The BTC/USD pair broke through a major resistance level of $21,000. The price is currently in the 21400-21500 range and heading towards important resistance levels and liquidity zones:

• resistance 21780
  
• resistance 22,000
  
• resistance 22780
  

Positive factors for continued growth:

• - Indicators are pointing to bullish strength and it is likely that the upward move could continue
  
• - Earlier, the resistance of the descending triangle was broken, which motivated the bulls to push the price further
  
• - The price breaks through the key level of 21000
  
• - Relatively positive upside fundamentals
  

(Chart 5: Comparison of the 2018-2019 bottom and finding the bottom of the current day)

Factors that may be under bearish control

• - Price is still in a range after a strong fall (daily chart) Range: 24500-18200, until the price comes out of it upwards, we cannot be categorical about local growth
  
• - According to many analysts, the price has not yet formed the final bottom, too little time has passed
  
• - The volatility is still low and the pressure on the market is strong from the top. Price is still struggling to overcome the resistance zones
  
• - Extremely unstable investor sentiment
  

Regards R.Linda!

2022年11月6日

註釋

Bitcoin is testing a price high at 21475, after which the price moves into a consolidation phase. Drawing a line of support and resistance on the local lows and highs, we see the formation of a symmetrical triangle, which implies the continuation of the movement.
There is potential for the price to continue its rise.
I think that from the opening of the main trading session on Monday, Flagman will show us a hint of further direction.
At breakdown of support there is a chance of price fall to 20680 zone
At breakdown of resistance - we expect growth up to 21780