Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on March 13th, 2023

The Silicon Valley bank collapsed, and the USDC event ended. The Fed and Treasury stepped in to deal with the subsequent potential liquidity crisis. The 'Black Swan dust has settled, and prices have returned. The market is back to its previous pace.

This morning's rise to repair the previous excessive panic does not mean that there is sustainability. The opening of the bull market still depends on whether the 26,000 can be broken. It's still the same as before. But generally, the situation has become more favorable in the long side. With this unexpected event, you can see the possibility of falling employment data. If this is true for banks, how many other companies are on the verge of bankruptcy? Maintain the restrictive rate of around 5.5% to allow companies to cut costs for layoffs. Continuing to raise the cap to screw some businesses into bankruptcy will both lower employment. Achieve an accelerated decline in inflation.

And systemic risk concerns are put to rest. The Fed will step in to stifle the crisis in time. It will also allow multiple parties to reduce their worries and can already conclude. 20,000 is the bottom of this round of adjustment.

The only pity is that the short-term position has no reason to buy all in 20,000. After all, last year's long-term position occupied at least 50%, and recently there has been some ambush Shanghai upgrade in the relatively high transfer level into the short currency positions. Long positions have been heavier, but also to guard against the Fed does not strike a small probability event. Not out of hand is also reasonable, do not have to be overly entangled. Regardless is also the least affected way in this round of shocks, just no profit increase.

Subsequently, if there can be a specific shock repair, the chase into the point can be reduced. If the direct pull-up, then only 26,000 was broken as a signal to catch up. The real profit market is this round and not now.