Bitcoin Monthly | Best-case Scenario vs Correction Mode

7月4日

The monthly timeframe is super-long-term for Crypto, since we expect everything to happen fast in our modern-day society.

Today is the 4th of July; the month is brand-new.
What you are about to read can change easily in the course of the month.

The consolidation pattern here is very easy to spot; very easy to see.
It is drawn with black lines...



The lower line has been defined as "monthly support."

In February Bitcoin moved from $40,000 to $60,000+.
After February, every single month Bitcoin closed above $60,000.

This is the first time since February 2024 that Bitcoin is fully trading below this level; but, there is a catch, this month is just starting and just like past months, there can be a reversal and the session closes above 60K. This would nullify any and all bearish bias/potential.

On the other hand, moving/closing/trading/staying below $60,000 is a major negative market condition... Let me explain.

Notice the February 2024 candle; huge, big, green.
A negative month on the bearish side would produce the equivalent —to the downside. So you would need one or two sessions to match Feb. if the conditions are met.

This is the situation we are in; the month starts pretty bad but it is not conclusive (based on this long-term timeframe).

Depending on how things develop, a major crash is on the cards.

It can happen that Bitcoin moves low and lower to test 50K, 40K and even 30K just to move back-up this same month. This would produce a candle with a very long lower wick but with a recovery it would mean nothing long-term. Short-term we would have the expected correction, but long-term it would only mean market noise. This is a strongly positive scenario.

An even better scenario would be a reversal back above "monthly support" and Bitcoin rising toward 65K, 70K, 80K and later $100,000 with no signification correction. This would mean that instead of distribution we saw accumulation. This would be a best-case scenario.

This would be strong wishful thinking and naive on our part if we decide to go with such an scenario. The truth is that billions upon billions of dollars worth of Bitcoins are yet to be distributed, sold. And this is likely to cause a major drop.

There are other market dynamics to consider.

We have an election this year in the USA.
We know for a fact that election year is 100% positive —after the election. Since we have a major bull-market in 2025 together with new All-Time Highs, the only chance for a major correction to happen is now or else there is no other time for this to happen. And if there is no correction, a major bull-market is not possible.

Knowing this, we know that July-November 2024 is the most likely period for a major correction to develop, because after the correction we will have growth, growth, growth, growth and more growth... When Bitcoin goes green, it never stops.

The fact that it did stop as soon as March 2024 hit, tells us that we are no longer green.

The truth is clear and Bitcoin right now is red.
This is only the second month and there is room for much red before the major bull-market takes place.

This is normal.
This is expected... This is what is happening and we adapt and accept.

After the correction is over, we can enjoy and experience growth for more than 16 months straight... Isn't that good enough?

I think it is great.

We can adapt to the fact that the market is red now... That's ok.

Enjoy the correction and also enjoy the bullish wave that follows...

Thank you for reading.

Namaste.