graham.edwards84
看多

BTCUSDT 15 minute long idea

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
Target potential if this plays out would be in the 14000 range before the next pullback. Just an idea...
評論: BTCUSDT 0.13% did hit my lower target (red circle) and now has traded sideways somewhat predictably to pull the 200 MA into a horizontal position and begin the turnaround of this important moving average. It did attempt to move up off the 50 MA but this failed and it has now retreated back to the 200 MA to seek the reassuring support that it needs to make the next leg higher.

The vector and velocity should increase now and my feeling is that my upper target of 14000 range is very much still in play. After that I would expect some further consolidation before the move back up to the 20 K area. Happy trading...

評論: How many times will BTCUSDT 5.56% hit this key resistance level before breaking through? I think I can see maybe 6 or 7 attempts? Ultimately this is a very bullish indicator and some call this "hanging around the high". Eventually it will push through and there will be much pent up energy expressed in subsequent move higher once this gate is unlocked.

評論: On this 12 hour chart I have extended the 50 MA and the 20 MA into a projection (red and blue arrows). It is key that the 20 MA finds itself in a position to rise up through the 50 in order to end this consolidation phase and fuel the next rally to next all time high.

The 200 MA here (pink) is displaying the support area . Should a breakdown occur and a move below this occurs we would seek out the target on the one day chart but I do not see this as a likely scenario now, although further FUD could cause some additional panic.

Currently, I have set a target in the 14000 to 14500 range then we may see a move lower for the final consolidation wave completion. You can also see by the indicator charts below that there is plenty of room for a move upwards.

Currently it is struggling with a resistance area at 11700 but a break through this is expected very soon.

評論: We can see now that the 200 MA on this 15 minute chart is turning nicely to the upside and I have extended it out for the purpose of this idea. It appears that the price action is now going to follow this average and this could be the verification that traders are seeking to break the resistance (black line) and propel it above 12000.

I have placed the blue trend line also to assist illustrate this idea better. Target remains at 14400. Should a breakdown occur that would take the price action below this 200 MA then we would be looking at reassessing the idea and a downside target would be sought.

評論: I have adjusted my trend lines and the price action seems to forming a more classic "Pennant" style formation. I still think we are in good shape although there is always risk to the downside but the action has moved along sideways for three waves and so we would no longer be looking at a double bottom formation. This is different. Not a rising bearish wedge , not a bullish falling wedge ... This seems to be something more neutral and it really depends on the movements controlling these averages as many traders are watching to see if the 20 and 50 can remain above the 200.

Any cross of the 50 down through the 200 will trigger a sell off and take us down potentially to retest the low and possibly down to the next support level at 8400 or whatever.

But for now my outlook is still positive and until we have a confirmation it would seem like the bulls and bears are locked in a dance... Let's hope the bulls are better dancers...

評論: We had a nice breakout (finally) that I was expecting from this pennant formation and I was beginning to wonder which way the big move was going to go but the bulls succeeded in pushing it higher. The interesting this is that the Asian traders were responsible for the higher move, quite opposite to the previous few days when the European and North American traders had been running it up and the Asian traders had been pushing it back down.

So now we are moving back down to the 50 MA before the final leg higher to the 14400 area which is still my current target. You can see that I have placed a fib chart within the fib chart and this has given what I feel is confirmation of my target. I often do this and have had much success with this technique. So it is a bit had to look at but let's just go with it for now. Actually there is three fib charts stacked there now... lol.

You can also see that the 200 MA is still turning nicely to the upside as well and with one more big move higher we could potentially move to the 30 minute chart to see if the 200 MA is also turning. I just had a quick look and it still has not. This will be important to take us beyond the 14400 to higher levels.

評論: So a couple of new items here to share if you have been following this idea. First I have switched from the 15 minute to the 30 minute chart as we had discussed earlier. The reason is that the 200 MA here on the 30 minute chart has clearly turned to the upside and I have place a small extension on it to indicate where it is headed.

Second, I have moved up my fib chart a little bit and adjusted my target upwards. I have learned when using this style of chart that as the price action moves higher the chart also needs to creep up to match the important resistance area . It's not always clear but you get a feel for it.

I would expect a retracement here at this resistance point indicated by my drawing. This is a normal retracement area and is necessary for the final push. Once the lower target is set and I see where it lands I may adjust the fib chart again. So target now 14600 to 14800 potentially.

評論: So a couple of things now to discuss with you guys. If you have been following this idea you know that the pullback last night was expected and it did exactly land and reversed off of the 200 MA on the 30 minute chart.

So today I have switched over to the one hour chart because I want to point out the bullish crossover scenario we have just ahead of us today. You can see that the 50 MA here is in a great position to move up through the 200 MA and this should be a great indicator for traders to take a long position and move into the trade. I expect a fairly decent rally from this move. I do expect that the 20 MA here will move lower in order to touch down on the 50 in the short term but after than the move higher will get underway.

The second this is that I have again raised my target sell area to 15800 and potentially 16000. The big retrace we just had has given me the confidence to do this and you can see that the bands of the fib chart do correlate very nicely to this new placement especially that long sideways move off the bottom. I have removed the background fib chart so you can see this more clearly.

Lots of room on the indicator charts for a move higher here also.

評論: 20 MA touching down on the 50 MA signals the end to the move lower and now we can go higher. Next intermediate target is the 14400 fib level.

評論: It is going a bit deeper than I had anticipated... hmmm... trying to see the target somewhere on a different time scale chart but the only thing I can come up with so far is the previous fib level on my last chart. So if it doesn't bounce up from here I will have to re assess this idea and seek out what this downside target might be...
評論: That's what I'm talking about! Take a look at the divergence here.

評論: This idea is now terminated due to the failure this morning. I will start a new idea once it has bottomed. We could potentially be headed to the 84000 area as a next stop. There has been much FUD in the past 24 hours with some big shot saying that Bitcoin is headed to $1000... yeah right. Come on people... WTF.
"locked in a dance"...nice article thanks!
回覆
ZH 繁體中文
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
AR العربية
HE עברית
首頁 股票篩選器 外匯篩選器 加密貨幣篩選器 全球財經日曆 如何運作 圖表功能 網站規則 版主 網站 & 經紀商解決方案 小工具 圖表庫 功能請求 部落格 & 新聞 常見問題 幫助 & 維基 推特
個人資料 個人資料設定 帳戶和帳單 我的支援工單 聯絡客服 發表的想法 粉絲 正在關注 私人訊息 在線聊天 登出