The vector and velocity should increase now and my feeling is that my upper target of 14000 range is very much still in play. After that I would expect some further consolidation before the move back up to the 20 K area. Happy trading...
The 200 MA here (pink) is displaying the support area . Should a breakdown occur and a move below this occurs we would seek out the target on the one day chart but I do not see this as a likely scenario now, although further FUD could cause some additional panic.
Currently, I have set a target in the 14000 to 14500 range then we may see a move lower for the final consolidation wave completion. You can also see by the indicator charts below that there is plenty of room for a move upwards.
Currently it is struggling with a resistance area at 11700 but a break through this is expected very soon.
I have placed the blue trend line also to assist illustrate this idea better. Target remains at 14400. Should a breakdown occur that would take the price action below this 200 MA then we would be looking at reassessing the idea and a downside target would be sought.
Any cross of the 50 down through the 200 will trigger a sell off and take us down potentially to retest the low and possibly down to the next support level at 8400 or whatever.
But for now my outlook is still positive and until we have a confirmation it would seem like the bulls and bears are locked in a dance... Let's hope the bulls are better dancers...
So now we are moving back down to the 50 MA before the final leg higher to the 14400 area which is still my current target. You can see that I have placed a fib chart within the fib chart and this has given what I feel is confirmation of my target. I often do this and have had much success with this technique. So it is a bit had to look at but let's just go with it for now. Actually there is three fib charts stacked there now... lol.
You can also see that the 200 MA is still turning nicely to the upside as well and with one more big move higher we could potentially move to the 30 minute chart to see if the 200 MA is also turning. I just had a quick look and it still has not. This will be important to take us beyond the 14400 to higher levels.
Second, I have moved up my fib chart a little bit and adjusted my target upwards. I have learned when using this style of chart that as the price action moves higher the chart also needs to creep up to match the important resistance area . It's not always clear but you get a feel for it.
I would expect a retracement here at this resistance point indicated by my drawing. This is a normal retracement area and is necessary for the final push. Once the lower target is set and I see where it lands I may adjust the fib chart again. So target now 14600 to 14800 potentially.
So today I have switched over to the one hour chart because I want to point out the bullish crossover scenario we have just ahead of us today. You can see that the 50 MA here is in a great position to move up through the 200 MA and this should be a great indicator for traders to take a long position and move into the trade. I expect a fairly decent rally from this move. I do expect that the 20 MA here will move lower in order to touch down on the 50 in the short term but after than the move higher will get underway.
The second this is that I have again raised my target sell area to 15800 and potentially 16000. The big retrace we just had has given me the confidence to do this and you can see that the bands of the fib chart do correlate very nicely to this new placement especially that long sideways move off the bottom. I have removed the background fib chart so you can see this more clearly.
Lots of room on the indicator charts for a move higher here also.